Wanderers
vs
Boston River
Garuda Lions Prediction: Wanderers
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Wanderers vs Boston River overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Wanderers vs Boston River
| Probability | Wanderers | Draw | Boston River |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.8% | 25.6% | 16.6% |
| Market | 40.6% | 28.3% | 31.1% |
| Final | 44.9% | 27.6% | 27.5% |
| Edge | +17.2% | -2.7% | -14.5% |
Why Wanderers
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Wanderers below the model: +17.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Wanderers vs Boston River match preview
Wanderers are set to face Boston River in the Uruguay Primera División, with kickoff scheduled for October 10, 2026. According to the model probabilities, Wanderers have a 45% chance of winning, while both a draw and a Boston River victory are each at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Wanderers, with an expected goals tally of 1.74 for Wanderers compared to 0.83 for Boston River.
In terms of recent form, Wanderers have shown a mixed performance with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six matches. Conversely, Boston River has struggled, recording four losses and two draws in their recent outings. Historically, in their last two encounters, Wanderers have not secured a win, with Boston River claiming victory in both matches.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Wanderers and Boston River expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.57
Wanderers and Boston River attack and defence ratings
Wanderers
Boston River
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Wanderers vs Boston River markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wanderers | 44.9% | 2.23 | +17.2% | 2.30 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.2% | 2.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wanderers | 44.9% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Boston River | 27.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.7% |
| No | 52.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Wanderers win | 33.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.4% | |
| Loss | 42.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 12.2% |
| 1-1 | 12.2% | |
| 2-0 | 11.5% |
Wanderers vs Boston River stats
Wanderers and Boston River recent form
| Wanderers |
WWDDLW |
| Boston River |
DLLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Wanderers and Boston River season so far
Wanderers record
- They have won 14 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Boston River record
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 31 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wanderers vs Boston River head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Boston River | Wanderers | Uruguay Primera División | 4-1 |
| 2025-10-31 | Wanderers | Boston River | Primera División - Clausura | 2-2 |
| 2025-05-02 | Boston River | Wanderers | Uruguay Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2024-10-05 | Boston River | Wanderers | Primera División - Clausura | 3-2 |
| 2024-03-31 | Wanderers | Boston River | Primera División - Apertura | 0-2 |
| 2023-11-12 | Wanderers | Boston River | Primera División - Clausura | 0-2 |
| 2023-07-23 | Boston River | Wanderers | Primera División - Apertura | 0-1 |
| 2023-04-02 | Boston River | Wanderers | Primera División - Apertura | 0-1 |
| 2022-10-24 | Boston River | Wanderers | Primera División - Clausura | 2-2 |
| 2022-06-06 | Wanderers | Boston River | Primera División - Apertura | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Wanderers vs Boston River odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.6%, draw 28.3%, away 31.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.18 | 3.20 | 2.99 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.10 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.22 | 3.25 | 2.95 |
| Betfair | 2.25 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.30 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.16 | 3.20 | 2.92 |
| Pinnacle | 2.28 | 3.43 | 3.01 |
| SBO | 2.12 | 2.92 | 2.80 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.25 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .