Juventud
vs
Racing Montevideo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Juventud
1 – 0 Predicted score · 18% model probability
Juventud vs Racing Montevideo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Juventud vs Racing Montevideo
| Probability | Juventud | Draw | Racing Montevideo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.9% | 39.2% | 23.9% |
| Market | 36.4% | 29.7% | 33.9% |
| Final | 36.5% | 32.1% | 31.4% |
| Edge | +0.5% | +9.5% | -10.0% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Juventud vs Racing Montevideo match preview
Juventud and Racing Montevideo are set to clash in the Uruguay Primera División, with Juventud holding a slight edge in the probabilities at 36%, compared to Racing Montevideo's 31%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Juventud, occurring with an 18% probability. Expected goals suggest Juventud will generate 0.85, while Racing Montevideo is forecasted to score 0.63.
In terms of recent form, Juventud has recorded two draws, one win, and two losses in their last five matches, while Racing Montevideo's recent performance includes two losses, one draw, and two wins. Historically, in their last three encounters, Juventud has secured two victories against Racing Montevideo's one. The confidence grade for this matchup stands at C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Juventud and Racing Montevideo expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.48
Juventud and Racing Montevideo attack and defence ratings
Juventud
Racing Montevideo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Juventud vs Racing Montevideo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juventud | 36.5% | 2.74 | +0.5% | 2.60 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 81.5% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.1% | 1.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juventud | 36.5% |
| Draw | 32.1% | |
| Racing Montevideo | 31.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 18.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 81.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 27.9% |
| No | 72.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Juventud win | 13.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.8% | |
| Loss | 63.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 24.1% |
| 1-0 | 18.2% | |
| 1-1 | 13.4% |
Juventud vs Racing Montevideo stats
Juventud and Racing Montevideo recent form
| Juventud |
DDWLDD |
| Racing Montevideo |
LLDWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Juventud and Racing Montevideo season so far
Juventud record
- They have won 9 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Racing Montevideo record
- They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Juventud vs Racing Montevideo head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Racing Montevideo | Juventud | Uruguay Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2025-06-08 | Juventud | Racing Montevideo | Uruguay Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-19 | Juventud | Racing Montevideo | Uruguay Primera División | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Juventud vs Racing Montevideo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.4%, draw 29.7%, away 33.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.46 | 2.95 | 2.68 |
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.10 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.13 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.52 | 3.05 | 2.67 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.46 | 2.95 | 2.68 |
| Pinnacle | 2.58 | 3.07 | 2.88 |
| SBO | 2.34 | 2.90 | 2.51 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.00 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .