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Uruguay Primera División · ·Clausura - 10

Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool Montevideo

Garuda Lions Prediction: Deportivo Maldonado

1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability

Bet on Deportivo Maldonado

Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel, MaldonadoReferee: Gustavo Tejera

Deportivo Maldonado 40%
Draw 30%
Liverpool Montevideo 30%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Deportivo Maldonado wins
40%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
85%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
40%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 0
15% of simulated outcomes

Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool Montevideo overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool Montevideo

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDeportivo MaldonadoDrawLiverpool Montevideo
Model45.3%32.3%22.4%
Market38.1%29.5%32.4%
Final39.9%30.2%29.9%
Edge+7.2%+2.8%-10.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Deportivo Maldonado

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.22 vs 0.78.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Deportivo Maldonado below the model: +7.2 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 2.49, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.

Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool Montevideo match preview

Deportivo Maldonado faces Liverpool Montevideo in the upcoming Uruguay Primera División match, with probabilities indicating a 40% chance of a home win, while both teams share a 30% likelihood of a draw or an away victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of Deportivo Maldonado, with expected goals of 1.22 for them and 0.78 for Liverpool Montevideo.

Recent form shows Deportivo Maldonado with three wins, a loss, and another win in their last six matches, while Liverpool Montevideo has two wins, two draws, and two losses. In their last ten encounters, Deportivo Maldonado has secured three victories compared to Liverpool Montevideo's six wins and one draw, suggesting a competitive matchup ahead.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Deportivo Mald ↓ / Liverpool Mont → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 15% 9% 1 15% 14% 2 10% 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 85%
2+ goals 61%
3+ goals 33%
No goals 15%

Deportivo Maldonado and Liverpool Montevideo expected goals

Deportivo Maldonado 1.22
Liverpool Montevideo 0.78

Total expected goals: 2.01

Deportivo Maldonado and Liverpool Montevideo attack and defence ratings

Deportivo Maldonado

Attack 1.21 +21%
Defence 0.59 -41%

Liverpool Montevideo

Attack 1.25 +25%
Defence 0.78 -22%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Clausura - 10 fixtures

Uruguay Primera División

Before and after this match

Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool Montevideo markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Deportivo Maldonado 39.9% 2.51 +7.2% 2.49
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 67.5% 1.48 — —
Both teams to score No 60.4% 1.66 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 70.1% 1.43 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.7% 1.83 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Deportivo Maldonado39.9%
Draw30.2%
Liverpool Montevideo29.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.532.5%
Under 2.567.5%
Both teams to scoreYes39.6%
No60.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)70.1%
12 (either side)69.8%
X2 (draw or away)60.1%
Handicap -1Deportivo Maldonado win20.9%
Push (exactly one goal)24.4%
Loss54.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-015.2%
0-014.7%
1-114.2%
Compare prices for this pick

Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool Montevideo stats

Deportivo Maldonado and Liverpool Montevideo recent form

newest first
Deportivo Maldonado WWWLWL
Liverpool Montevideo WWDLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Deportivo Maldonado and Liverpool Montevideo season so far

league record

Deportivo Maldonado record

  • They have won 17 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 14 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Liverpool Montevideo record

  • They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 14 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool Montevideo head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Deportivo Maldonado wins 1Draws 6Liverpool Montevideo wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-05Liverpool MontevideoDeportivo MaldonadoUruguay Primera División0-2
2024-09-15Deportivo MaldonadoLiverpool MontevideoPrimera División - Clausura0-1
2024-03-03Liverpool MontevideoDeportivo MaldonadoPrimera División - Apertura1-2
2023-12-03Deportivo MaldonadoLiverpool MontevideoPrimera División - Clausura0-2
2023-07-03Liverpool MontevideoDeportivo MaldonadoPrimera División - Apertura3-2
2023-05-07Liverpool MontevideoDeportivo MaldonadoPrimera División - Apertura4-2
2022-08-28Liverpool MontevideoDeportivo MaldonadoPrimera División - Clausura1-1
2022-07-23Liverpool MontevideoDeportivo MaldonadoPrimera División - Apertura3-1
2022-03-04Deportivo MaldonadoLiverpool MontevideoPrimera División - Apertura1-0
2021-09-13Liverpool MontevideoDeportivo MaldonadoPrimera División - Clausura1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool Montevideo odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 38.1%, draw 29.5%, away 32.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.35 3.05 2.74
Bet365 2.35 3.00 2.75
BetVictor 2.38 3.13 2.80
Betano 2.37 3.05 2.85
Betfair 2.30 3.25 2.75
Dafabet 2.47 3.30 2.90
Marathonbet 2.35 3.05 2.74
Pinnacle 2.49 3.22 2.93
SBO 2.29 2.97 2.66
William Hill 2.45 3.00 2.88
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.36 ▼ -0.04
X 3.05 ▼ -0.05
2 2.77 ▼ -0.04

12 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Deportivo Maldonado Predicted score 1 – 0 Low Bet Now
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