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Uruguay Primera División · Full time ·Clausura - 9

Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol

3 – 0 Full time

13′Renato Cesar
59′Santiago Cartagena
61′raul tarragonaJ. Dellarossa
65′Cayetano Bolzán
67′Guillermo gandolfo
68′Santiago CartagenaLucas·Nunez
68′Cayetano Bolzán Adrian Vila
68′Camilo MayadaLautaro Ibanez
80′Gonzalo Sebastián Sosamaxiliano alis sequeira noble
82′Lautaro Ibanez
86′Fernando Camarda
89′Lucas·PinoMarcos Montiel
89′David Maximiliano Gonzalezfranco marino
89′Franco Munozexequiel mereles
90′maxiliano alis sequeira noble

Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel, MaldonadoReferee: Javier Feres

Deportivo Maldonado 60%
Draw 25%
Central Espanol 16%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

7 Shots 4
3 Shots on target 1
58 Possession % 42
3 Corners 2

Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDeportivo MaldonadoDrawCentral Espanol
Model66.3%25.2%8.5%
Market57.3%24.4%18.3%
Final59.5%24.6%15.9%
Edge+9.0%+0.8%-9.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Deportivo Maldonado

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 0.43.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Deportivo Maldonado below the model: +9.0 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Deportivo Mald ↓ / Central Espano → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 14% 1 20% 2 17% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 86%
2+ goals 62%
3+ goals 34%
No goals 14%

Deportivo Maldonado and Central Espanol expected goals

Deportivo Maldonado 1.62
Central Espanol 0.43

Total expected goals: 2.05

Deportivo Maldonado and Central Espanol attack and defence ratings

Deportivo Maldonado

Attack 1.10 +10%
Defence 0.64 -36%

Central Espanol

Attack 0.62 -38%
Defence 1.14 +14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol: result vs prediction

Deportivo Maldonado 3 – 0 Central Espanol

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 9 fixtures

Uruguay Primera División

Before and after this match

Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Deportivo Maldonado 59.5% 1.68 +9.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 66.2% 1.51 — —
Both teams to score No 71.1% 1.41 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 84.1% 1.19 — —
Handicap -1 Deportivo Maldonado win 38.2% 2.62 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Deportivo Maldonado59.5%
Draw24.6%
Central Espanol15.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.533.8%
Under 2.566.2%
Both teams to scoreYes28.9%
No71.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)84.1%
12 (either side)75.4%
X2 (draw or away)40.5%
Handicap -1Deportivo Maldonado win38.2%
Push (exactly one goal)28.1%
Loss33.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-019.9%
2-016.9%
0-013.7%

Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol stats

Deportivo Maldonado and Central Espanol recent form

newest first
Deportivo Maldonado WWLWLD
Central Espanol LLDDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Deportivo Maldonado and Central Espanol going into this match

league record before kick-off

Deportivo Maldonado record

  • They have won 16 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Central Espanol record

  • They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Deportivo Maldonado wins 3Draws 3Central Espanol wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-31Central EspanolDeportivo MaldonadoUruguay Primera División2-1
2025-08-19Central EspanolDeportivo MaldonadoSegunda División0-2
2025-05-31Deportivo MaldonadoCentral EspanolSegunda División0-0
2019-08-20Central EspanolDeportivo MaldonadoSegunda División0-1
2019-05-11Deportivo MaldonadoCentral EspanolSegunda División1-0
2018-08-04Central EspanolDeportivo MaldonadoSegunda División0-0
2018-03-10Deportivo MaldonadoCentral EspanolSegunda División2-0
2017-12-02Deportivo MaldonadoCentral EspanolSegunda División0-0
2017-11-29Central EspanolDeportivo MaldonadoSegunda División2-0
2017-10-07Central EspanolDeportivo MaldonadoSegunda División1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 57.3%, draw 24.4%, away 18.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.64 4.08 5.15
Bet365 1.57 3.90 4.75
BetVictor 1.60 3.70 5.00
Betano 1.60 3.70 4.85
Betfair 1.60 3.75 4.75
Marathonbet 1.54 3.72 5.00
Pinnacle 1.60 4.15 5.45
SBO 1.57 3.39 4.67
William Hill 1.62 3.75 5.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.60 ▼ -0.05
X 3.75 ▲ +0.35
2 5.00 ▲ +0.18

13 snapshots recorded, from .