Uruguay Primera División
·
Full time
·Clausura - 9
Danubio
vs
Cerro Largo
2 – 1 Full time
| 1′ | Tomas Bernardo Cavanagh | ||
| 15′ | Mateo peralta | ||
| 26′ | Pedro Gonzalez | ||
| 27′ | Mateo peralta | ||
| 30′ | Santiago Marcel·Perez | ||
| 42′ | Alexis Sebastián Segovia | ||
| 46′ | Tomas Bernardo CavanaghGonzalo Rodríguez | ||
| 46′ | Pedro GonzalezLukas gonzalez | ||
| 59′ | Lucas PirizDiego Daguerre | ||
| 60′ | Diego Daguerre | ||
| 61′ | Benjamin AzambujaSebastián Fernández | ||
| 61′ | Ivan RossiJ. Millán | ||
| 61′ | alexis piegas | ||
| 68′ | Sebastián RodriguezEnzo Cabrera | ||
| 70′ | J. Millán | ||
| 71′ | nicolas ramosRobert Ergas | ||
| 71′ | Alexis Sebastián SegoviaMario Garcia | ||
| 83′ | Santiago Marcel·PerezBorys Barone | ||
| 90′ | Gonzalo Rodríguez | ||
| 90′ | Danubio | ||
| 90′ | Danubio |
Danubio
41%
Draw
32%
Cerro Largo
27%
Match stats
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 51 | Possession % | 49 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
Danubio vs Cerro Largo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Danubio vs Cerro Largo
| Probability | Danubio | Draw | Cerro Largo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.8% | 40.0% | 34.2% |
| Market | 45.8% | 29.5% | 24.7% |
| Final | 40.8% | 32.1% | 27.1% |
| Edge | -20.0% | +10.5% | +9.5% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
75%
2+ goals
43%
3+ goals
18%
No goals
25%
Danubio and Cerro Largo expected goals
Danubio
0.65
Cerro Largo
0.79
Total expected goals: 1.44
Danubio and Cerro Largo attack and defence ratings
Danubio
Attack
0.52 -48%
Defence
1.01 +1%
Cerro Largo
Attack
0.73 -27%
Defence
0.96 -4%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Danubio vs Cerro Largo: result vs prediction
Danubio 2 – 1 Cerro Largo
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Clausura - 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Danubio vs Cerro Largo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Danubio | 40.8% | 2.45 | -20.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 82.5% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Danubio | 40.8% |
| Draw | 32.1% | |
| Cerro Largo | 27.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 17.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 82.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 27.2% |
| No | 72.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Danubio win | 7.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.4% | |
| Loss | 74.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 25.0% |
| 0-1 | 17.6% | |
| 1-0 | 14.2% |
Danubio vs Cerro Largo stats
Danubio and Cerro Largo recent form
| Danubio |
LDDLLD |
| Cerro Largo |
LDLDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Danubio and Cerro Largo going into this match
Danubio record
- They have won 4 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 30 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cerro Largo record
- They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 30 matches.
Danubio vs Cerro Largo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
1Danubio wins
5Draws
4Cerro Largo wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | Cerro Largo | Danubio | Uruguay Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2025-08-18 | Cerro Largo | Danubio | Primera División - Clausura | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-06 | Cerro Largo | Danubio | CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 2-2 |
| 2025-02-15 | Danubio | Cerro Largo | Uruguay Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2024-10-20 | Cerro Largo | Danubio | Primera División - Clausura | 0-0 |
| 2024-06-09 | Cerro Largo | Danubio | Primera División - Apertura | 2-2 |
| 2024-04-20 | Danubio | Cerro Largo | Primera División - Apertura | 1-1 |
| 2023-09-02 | Danubio | Cerro Largo | Primera División - Clausura | 2-0 |
| 2023-02-18 | Cerro Largo | Danubio | Primera División - Apertura | 1-0 |
| 2022-09-30 | Cerro Largo | Danubio | Primera División - Clausura | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Danubio vs Cerro Largo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.8%, draw 29.5%, away 24.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.00 | 3.44 | 3.86 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.10 | 3.75 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.10 | 3.70 |
| Betano | 2.00 | 3.15 | 3.55 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.91 | 3.08 | 3.70 |
| Pinnacle | 2.10 | 3.21 | 3.84 |
| SBO | 1.98 | 2.84 | 3.21 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.10 | 3.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.00 ▼ -0.25
X
3.10 ▲ +0.18
2
3.70 ▲ +0.58
14 snapshots recorded, from .