Uruguay Primera División
·
Full time
·Clausura - 9
Racing Montevideo
vs
Penarol
0 – 1 Full time
| 23′ | Alex Vázquez | ||
| 28′ | Jesús Trindade | ||
| 29′ | Lucas Agustin Ferreira Zagas | ||
| 29′ | Sebastian Da Silva | ||
| 46′ | Martín Ferreira | ||
| 53′ | nahuel herrera | ||
| 63′ | E. Da SilvaR. Gadea | ||
| 63′ | A. VazquezF. Suarez | ||
| 69′ | N. HerreraM. Lemos | ||
| 69′ | Jesus TrindadeJ. Rodriguez | ||
| 74′ | Germán Pezzella | ||
| 77′ | BrazionisF. Gonzalez | ||
| 81′ | Eric Remedi | ||
| 85′ | Facundo Gonzalez | ||
| 88′ | T. N. Espinosa DovatLucas Hernandez | ||
| 88′ | C. JaimeF. Gonzalez | ||
| 89′ | M. Arezo | ||
| 90′ | Y. OyarzoJ. Guarino | ||
| 90′ | M. ArezoT. Olase |
Racing Montevideo
25%
Draw
31%
Penarol
44%
Match stats
| 5 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 43 | Possession % | 57 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
Racing Montevideo vs Penarol overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Racing Montevideo vs Penarol
| Probability | Racing Montevideo | Draw | Penarol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.0% | 33.1% | 44.0% |
| Market | 25.9% | 30.2% | 43.8% |
| Final | 25.2% | 30.9% | 43.9% |
| Edge | -2.9% | +2.8% | +0.1% |
Why Penarol
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.18 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
85%
2+ goals
59%
3+ goals
31%
No goals
15%
Racing Montevideo and Penarol expected goals
Racing Montevideo
0.77
Penarol
1.18
Total expected goals: 1.95
Racing Montevideo and Penarol attack and defence ratings
Racing Montevideo
Attack
0.84 -16%
Defence
0.76 -24%
Penarol
Attack
1.46 +46%
Defence
0.71 -29%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Racing Montevideo vs Penarol: result vs prediction
Racing Montevideo 0 – 1 Penarol
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Clausura - 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Racing Montevideo vs Penarol markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penarol | 43.9% | 2.28 | +0.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 69.1% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Racing Montevideo | 25.2% |
| Draw | 30.9% | |
| Penarol | 43.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 69.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.5% |
| No | 61.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Penarol win | 19.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.3% | |
| Loss | 55.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.5% |
| 0-1 | 15.4% | |
| 1-1 | 14.3% |
Racing Montevideo vs Penarol stats
Racing Montevideo and Penarol recent form
| Racing Montevideo |
LDWLWD |
| Penarol |
DWWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Racing Montevideo and Penarol going into this match
Racing Montevideo record
- They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Penarol record
- They have won 19 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Racing Montevideo vs Penarol head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
2Racing Montevideo wins
4Draws
4Penarol wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Racing Montevideo | Penarol | Uruguay Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Penarol | Racing Montevideo | Uruguay Primera División | 1-2 |
| 2026-01-20 | Penarol | Racing Montevideo | Copa De La Liga Auf | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Racing Montevideo | Penarol | Primera División - Clausura | 1-4 |
| 2025-03-09 | Penarol | Racing Montevideo | Uruguay Primera División | 0-2 |
| 2024-09-30 | Penarol | Racing Montevideo | Primera División - Clausura | 0-0 |
| 2024-06-16 | Penarol | Racing Montevideo | Primera División - Apertura | 1-1 |
| 2024-03-15 | Racing Montevideo | Penarol | Primera División - Apertura | 1-2 |
| 2023-12-02 | Penarol | Racing Montevideo | Primera División - Clausura | 1-1 |
| 2023-05-08 | Racing Montevideo | Penarol | Primera División - Apertura | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Racing Montevideo vs Penarol odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.9%, draw 30.2%, away 43.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.66 | 3.38 | 2.09 |
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.50 | 3.00 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.40 | 3.10 | 2.07 |
| Betfair | 3.60 | 3.00 | 1.95 |
| Marathonbet | 3.64 | 2.81 | 2.05 |
| Pinnacle | 4.05 | 2.90 | 2.19 |
| SBO | 3.33 | 2.84 | 1.93 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 2.88 | 2.15 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.50 ▲ +0.25
X
3.00 ▼ -0.08
2
2.07 ▼ -0.06
15 snapshots recorded, from .