Uruguay Primera División · 2026-09-30T23:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Clausura - 1

Atletico Torque vs Penarol

1 – 1 Full time

10′			Eric Remedi
21′			Matías Arezo
23′			E. Obregón
27′			Brian Gutiérrez
32′			Maximiliano OliveraThiago Espinosa
32′			Franco RomeroIgnacio alegre
53′			Diogo GuzmánAlexander Nahuel da Silva Rivero
58′			Javier CabreraJesús Trindade
61′			Jesús Trindade
73′			Roberto FernándezAbel Hernández
73′			Matías ArezoLucas Hernández
79′			Luka AndradeLucas Duré
87′			Lucas Agustin Ferreira Zagas

Estadio Charrúa , MontevideoReferee: Javier Feres

Atletico Torque

31%

Draw

28%

Penarol

41%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

11	Shots	4
4	Shots on target	2
51	Possession %	49
0	Corners	5

Atletico Torque vs Penarol overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Torque vs Penarol

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Atletico Torque	Draw	Penarol
Model	27.6%	25.9%	46.5%
Market	32.3%	28.3%	39.4%
Final	31.2%	27.7%	41.1%
Edge	-4.7%	-2.4%	+7.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Penarol

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.28.
The market prices Penarol below the model: +7.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

94%

2+ goals

81%

3+ goals

58%

No goals

Atletico Torque and Penarol expected goals

Atletico Torque

1.28

Penarol

1.71

Total expected goals: 3.00

Atletico Torque and Penarol attack and defence ratings

Atletico Torque

Attack

1.48 +48%

Defence

1.04 +4%

Penarol

Attack

1.54 +54%

Defence

0.67 -33%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atletico Torque vs Penarol: result vs prediction

Atletico Torque 1 – 1 Penarol

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Before and after this match

Atletico Torque, previous: Atletico Torque vs Deportivo Maldonado prediction
Atletico Torque, next: Club Nacional vs Atletico Torque prediction
Penarol, previous: Penarol vs Boston River: odds and pick
Penarol, next: Racing Montevideo vs Penarol: odds and pick

Atletico Torque vs Penarol markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Penarol	41.1%	2.43	+7.1%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	57.6%	1.74	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	60.4%	1.66	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	72.3%	1.38	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	53.5%	1.87	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Atletico Torque	31.2%
	Draw	27.7%
	Penarol	41.1%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	57.6%
	Under 2.5	42.4%
Both teams to score	Yes	60.4%
	No	39.6%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	58.9%
	12 (either side)	72.3%
	X2 (draw or away)	68.8%
Handicap -1	Penarol win	25.5%
	Push (exactly one goal)	21.0%
	Loss	53.5%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	12.1%
	1-2	9.4%
	0-1	7.5%

Atletico Torque vs Penarol stats

Atletico Torque and Penarol recent form

newest first

Atletico Torque	LWLWWW
Penarol	WWWWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Atletico Torque and Penarol going into this match

league record before kick-off

Atletico Torque record

They have won 16 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Penarol record

They have won 19 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atletico Torque vs Penarol head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Atletico Torque wins 1Draws 6Penarol wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-08-26	Penarol	Atletico Torque	Copa Uruguay	1-0
2026-02-07	Penarol	Atletico Torque	Uruguay Primera División	3-1
2025-11-09	Atletico Torque	Penarol	Primera División - Clausura	0-2
2025-05-17	Penarol	Atletico Torque	Uruguay Primera División	2-1
2024-04-17	Penarol	Atletico Torque	Copa Uruguay	1-3
2023-10-18	Atletico Torque	Penarol	Primera División - Clausura	2-3
2023-07-03	Penarol	Atletico Torque	Primera División - Apertura	2-0
2023-03-12	Penarol	Atletico Torque	Primera División - Apertura	2-2
2022-09-24	Penarol	Atletico Torque	Primera División - Clausura	0-1
2022-06-12	Penarol	Atletico Torque	Primera División - Apertura	1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Atletico Torque vs Penarol odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.3%, draw 28.3%, away 39.4%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.83	3.18	2.29
Bet365	2.62	3.50	2.30
BetVictor	2.88	3.20	2.30
Betano	2.80	3.30	2.27
Betfair	2.80	3.25	2.30
Marathonbet	2.76	3.18	2.27
Pinnacle	2.96	3.39	2.41
SBO	2.65	2.94	2.20
William Hill	2.80	3.10	2.38

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.80 ▲ +0.30

X 3.20 ▼ -0.20

2 2.30 ▼ -0.20

26 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-18T08:10:01Z.