Uruguay Primera División
·
Full time
·Clausura - 8
Penarol
vs
Boston River
2 – 1 Full time
| 11′ | Lucas Ferreira | ||
| 32′ | Lucas Ferreira | ||
| 38′ | Eric Remedi | ||
| 45′ | Martín González | ||
| 45′ | Lautaro Vazquez | ||
| 46′ | Germán PezzellaNahuel Herrera | ||
| 46′ | Lucas FerreiraFranco Romero | ||
| 50′ | Francisco Bonfiglio | ||
| 55′ | Leandro Suhr | ||
| 61′ | Javier CabreraLucas Hernández | ||
| 66′ | Leandro SuhrFacundo Agustin Aristegui Lemos | ||
| 74′ | Thiago EspinosaAbel Hernández | ||
| 78′ | Lautaro VazquezFacundo Saravia | ||
| 86′ | Francisco BonfiglioNicolás Siri | ||
| 86′ | Fredy MartínezJairo O'Neil | ||
| 89′ | Cristian JaimeIgnacio Alegre | ||
| 90′ | Abel Hernández |
Penarol
67%
Draw
21%
Boston River
13%
Penarol vs Boston River overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Penarol vs Boston River
| Probability | Penarol | Draw | Boston River |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 77.5% | 16.1% | 6.4% |
| Market | 63.2% | 22.2% | 14.6% |
| Final | 66.8% | 20.7% | 12.5% |
| Edge | +14.3% | -6.1% | -8.2% |
Why Penarol
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.44 vs 0.59.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Penarol below the model: +14.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
81%
3+ goals
58%
No goals
6%
Penarol and Boston River expected goals
Penarol
2.44
Boston River
0.59
Total expected goals: 3.03
Penarol and Boston River attack and defence ratings
Penarol
Attack
1.52 +52%
Defence
0.65 -35%
Boston River
Attack
0.86 -14%
Defence
1.23 +23%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Penarol vs Boston River: result vs prediction
Penarol 2 – 1 Boston River
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Clausura - 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Penarol vs Boston River markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penarol | 66.8% | 1.50 | +14.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.3% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.5% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Penarol win | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penarol | 66.8% |
| Draw | 20.7% | |
| Boston River | 12.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.4% |
| No | 58.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 33.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Penarol win | 55.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 22.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 14.4% |
| 3-0 | 11.7% | |
| 1-0 | 11.1% |
Penarol vs Boston River stats
Penarol and Boston River recent form
| Penarol |
WWWLDW |
| Boston River |
LLLDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Penarol and Boston River going into this match
Penarol record
- They have won 18 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Boston River record
- They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 29 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Penarol vs Boston River head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
7Penarol wins
2Draws
1Boston River wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Penarol | Boston River | Uruguay Primera División | 3-0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Boston River | Penarol | Uruguay Primera División | 0-2 |
| 2026-01-23 | Penarol | Boston River | Copa De La Liga Auf | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-15 | Boston River | Penarol | Primera División - Clausura | 2-1 |
| 2025-02-15 | Penarol | Boston River | Uruguay Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2024-10-19 | Penarol | Boston River | Primera División - Clausura | 2-0 |
| 2024-04-20 | Boston River | Penarol | Primera División - Apertura | 1-3 |
| 2024-02-05 | Penarol | Boston River | Copa Uruguay | 2-0 |
| 2023-09-02 | Boston River | Penarol | Primera División - Clausura | 0-1 |
| 2023-07-16 | Penarol | Boston River | Primera División - Apertura | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Penarol vs Boston River odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 63.2%, draw 22.2%, away 14.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.42 | 4.05 | 6.45 |
| Bet365 | 1.42 | 3.90 | 6.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.45 | 4.05 | 6.00 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.41 | 4.05 | 6.15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.48 | 4.42 | 6.72 |
| SBO | 1.38 | 3.91 | 6.09 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.42 ▲ +0.06
X
4.05 ▼ -0.28
2
6.15 ▼ -0.85
6 snapshots recorded, from .