Garuda Lions
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Uruguay Primera División · Full time ·Clausura - 7

Boston River vs Progreso

1 – 2 Full time

9′F. Martinez
26′L. VianaM. Juambeltz
46′F. SaraviaA. Amado
46′L. VazquezF. Avenatti
46′F. AristeguiF. Valdez
48′I. Fernandez
56′M. Juambeltz
57′A. Cougo
62′F. De LeonE. Alvarez
62′I. FernandezG. Ramirez
70′J. AcostaL. Suarez
71′N. Siri
76′A. OcampoJ. Dos Santos
76′G. TrasanteN. Acosta
76′R. CristobalL. Couture
90′N. Lopez
90′M. Saravia

Parque Artigas, Las PiedrasReferee: Mathias De Armas, Uruguay

Boston River 48%
Draw 29%
Progreso 24%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Boston River vs Progreso overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Boston River vs Progreso

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBoston RiverDrawProgreso
Model45.9%31.1%23.1%
Market48.2%28.0%23.8%
Final47.6%28.8%23.6%
Edge-2.3%+3.1%-0.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Boston River

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.85.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Boston River ↓ / Progreso → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 13% 9% 1 14% 14% 2 10% 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 87%
2+ goals 65%
3+ goals 37%
No goals 13%

Boston River and Progreso expected goals

Boston River 1.30
Progreso 0.85

Total expected goals: 2.16

Boston River and Progreso attack and defence ratings

Boston River

Attack 0.91 -9%
Defence 1.19 +19%

Progreso

Attack 0.68 -32%
Defence 1.10 +10%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Boston River vs Progreso: result vs prediction

Boston River 1 – 2 Progreso

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 7 fixtures

Uruguay Primera División

Before and after this match

Boston River vs Progreso markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Boston River 47.6% 2.10 -2.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 63.5% 1.58 — —
Both teams to score No 57.0% 1.76 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 76.4% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.1% 1.85 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Boston River47.6%
Draw28.8%
Progreso23.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.536.5%
Under 2.563.5%
Both teams to scoreYes43.0%
No57.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)76.4%
12 (either side)71.2%
X2 (draw or away)52.4%
Handicap -1Boston River win22.0%
Push (exactly one goal)23.9%
Loss54.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.1%
1-013.8%
0-012.9%

Boston River vs Progreso stats

Boston River and Progreso recent form

newest first
Boston River LLDWDW
Progreso LWWLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Boston River and Progreso going into this match

league record before kick-off

Boston River record

  • They have won 8 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 13 of 28 matches.
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Progreso record

  • They have won 6 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 13 of 28 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Boston River vs Progreso head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Boston River wins 2Draws 5Progreso wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-22ProgresoBoston RiverUruguay Primera División0-1
2026-01-29Boston RiverProgresoCopa De La Liga Auf1-2
2025-08-31Boston RiverProgresoPrimera División - Clausura2-1
2025-06-19ProgresoBoston RiverUruguay Primera División2-0
2025-03-09ProgresoBoston RiverUruguay Primera División2-2
2024-10-16Boston RiverProgresoPrimera División - Clausura1-0
2024-04-13ProgresoBoston RiverPrimera División - Apertura1-0
2021-11-08Boston RiverProgresoPrimera División - Clausura0-0
2021-07-16ProgresoBoston RiverPrimera División - Apertura1-0
2021-02-23Boston RiverProgresoPrimera División - Clausura2-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Boston River vs Progreso odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 48.2%, draw 28.0%, away 23.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.86 3.22 3.88
Bet365 1.85 3.20 3.90
BetVictor 1.90 3.30 3.80
Betano 1.95 3.20 3.60
Betfair 1.85 3.30 3.80
Marathonbet 1.84 3.22 3.78
Pinnacle 1.94 3.44 4.09
William Hill 1.95 3.25 3.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.88 ▼ -0.03
X 3.24 —
2 3.80 ▲ +0.03

5 snapshots recorded, from .