Uruguay Primera División
·
Full time
·Clausura - 8
Progreso
vs
Racing Montevideo
2 – 1 Full time
| 19′ | M. Juambeltz | ||
| 46′ | F. GonzalezJ. Bosca | ||
| 46′ | S. Da SilvaF. Suarez | ||
| 50′ | E. Da Silva | ||
| 63′ | A. OcampoF. De Leon | ||
| 63′ | G. TrasanteM. Copelotti | ||
| 67′ | I. Manzur | ||
| 73′ | A. Cougo | ||
| 74′ | I. Manzur | ||
| 74′ | I. Manzur | ||
| 74′ | F. GarciaE. Alvarez | ||
| 75′ | BrazionisM. Ferreira | ||
| 75′ | A. VazquezR. Gadea | ||
| 78′ | A. CougoH. Carroso | ||
| 78′ | R. CristobalN. Acosta | ||
| 81′ | E. Da SilvaN. Sosa | ||
| 83′ | Agustin De la Cuesta | ||
| 90′ | E. Alvarez | ||
| 90′ | N. Lopez |
Progreso
24%
Draw
31%
Racing Montevideo
45%
Progreso vs Racing Montevideo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Progreso vs Racing Montevideo
| Probability | Progreso | Draw | Racing Montevideo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.6% | 37.0% | 38.4% |
| Market | 23.8% | 28.8% | 47.4% |
| Final | 24.0% | 30.8% | 45.2% |
| Edge | +0.7% | +8.3% | -9.0% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
79%
2+ goals
50%
3+ goals
23%
No goals
21%
Progreso and Racing Montevideo expected goals
Progreso
0.70
Racing Montevideo
0.94
Total expected goals: 1.64
Progreso and Racing Montevideo attack and defence ratings
Progreso
Attack
0.79 -21%
Defence
1.07 +7%
Racing Montevideo
Attack
0.82 -18%
Defence
0.67 -33%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Progreso vs Racing Montevideo: result vs prediction
Progreso 2 – 1 Racing Montevideo
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Clausura - 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Progreso vs Racing Montevideo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Racing Montevideo | 45.2% | 2.21 | -9.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 68.2% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Progreso | 24.0% |
| Draw | 30.8% | |
| Racing Montevideo | 45.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 22.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 77.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31.8% |
| No | 68.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Racing Montevideo win | 14.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.7% | |
| Loss | 61.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 20.8% |
| 0-1 | 17.0% | |
| 1-1 | 14.0% |
Progreso vs Racing Montevideo stats
Progreso and Racing Montevideo recent form
| Progreso |
WLWWLL |
| Racing Montevideo |
DWLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Progreso and Racing Montevideo going into this match
Progreso record
- They have won 7 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Racing Montevideo record
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Progreso vs Racing Montevideo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Progreso wins
2Draws
5Racing Montevideo wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | Racing Montevideo | Progreso | Uruguay Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-29 | Racing Montevideo | Progreso | Primera División - Clausura | 0-0 |
| 2025-06-22 | Racing Montevideo | Progreso | Uruguay Primera División | 3-0 |
| 2025-03-30 | Progreso | Racing Montevideo | Uruguay Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2024-09-21 | Racing Montevideo | Progreso | Primera División - Clausura | 1-0 |
| 2024-07-07 | Progreso | Racing Montevideo | Primera División - Apertura | 3-2 |
| 2024-03-10 | Progreso | Racing Montevideo | Primera División - Apertura | 4-3 |
| 2022-08-14 | Racing Montevideo | Progreso | Segunda División | 2-1 |
| 2022-05-22 | Progreso | Racing Montevideo | Segunda División | 0-2 |
| 2019-10-09 | Progreso | Racing Montevideo | Primera División - Clausura | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Progreso vs Racing Montevideo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 23.9%, draw 28.9%, away 47.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.76 | 3.16 | 1.91 |
| Bet365 | 3.90 | 3.10 | 1.83 |
| BetVictor | 3.80 | 3.13 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 3.80 | 3.15 | 1.93 |
| Betfair | 3.80 | 3.10 | 1.91 |
| Marathonbet | 3.66 | 3.16 | 1.89 |
| Pinnacle | 3.90 | 3.37 | 2.01 |
| William Hill | 3.75 | 3.10 | 1.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.80 ▲ +0.05
X
3.15 ▼ -0.05
2
1.91 ▼ -0.03
7 snapshots recorded, from .