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Uruguay Primera División · Full time ·Clausura - 9

Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso

3 – 2 Full time

10′Lucas acosta
18′Emiliano Alvarez
34′Kevin Lewis
36′Marco Antonio Saravia
38′Santiago Milano Larrosa
45′Gianfranco trasante
46′Marco Antonio Saraviahernan carroso
46′Gianfranco trasanteNahuel acosta
48′nahuel lopez
51′Lucas acostaDiego Romero Lanz
62′Federico MartinezRamiro Matias Degregorio
62′Kevin LewisDiego Zabala
67′Rafael Haller
67′Thiago BrizuelaFacundo Barcelo
71′Ramiro Matias Degregorio
73′Maximiliano JuambeltzMatteo copelotti
77′nahuel lopez
79′Rubén Bentancourt
82′Diego Zabala
83′Ayrton Cougogary silva
88′Diego Zabala
90′Gastón Silva

Estadio Alfredo Victor Viera, MontevideoReferee: Andrés Matías Matonte Cabrera

Liverpool Montevideo 56%
Draw 26%
Progreso 18%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

9 Shots 8
5 Shots on target 3
53 Possession % 47
3 Corners 4

Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLiverpool MontevideoDrawProgreso
Model56.3%28.4%15.3%
Market55.3%25.3%19.4%
Final55.5%26.1%18.4%
Edge+1.1%+3.1%-4.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Liverpool Montevideo

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.66.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Liverpool Mont ↓ / Progreso → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 13% 1 16% 13% 2 13% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 87%
2+ goals 65%
3+ goals 37%
No goals 13%

Liverpool Montevideo and Progreso expected goals

Liverpool Montevideo 1.50
Progreso 0.66

Total expected goals: 2.16

Liverpool Montevideo and Progreso attack and defence ratings

Liverpool Montevideo

Attack 1.11 +11%
Defence 0.70 -30%

Progreso

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso: result vs prediction

Liverpool Montevideo 3 – 2 Progreso

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 9 fixtures

Uruguay Primera División

Before and after this match

Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Liverpool Montevideo 55.5% 1.80 +1.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 63.3% 1.58 — —
Both teams to score No 61.2% 1.63 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 81.6% 1.23 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 43.7% 2.29 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Liverpool Montevideo55.5%
Draw26.1%
Progreso18.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.536.7%
Under 2.563.3%
Both teams to scoreYes38.8%
No61.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)81.6%
12 (either side)73.9%
X2 (draw or away)44.5%
Handicap -1Liverpool Montevideo win30.1%
Push (exactly one goal)26.2%
Loss43.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-016.1%
2-012.9%
0-012.7%

Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso stats

Liverpool Montevideo and Progreso recent form

newest first
Liverpool Montevideo WDLWDW
Progreso WWLWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Liverpool Montevideo and Progreso going into this match

league record before kick-off

Liverpool Montevideo record

  • They have won 12 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 14 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Progreso record

  • They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 13 of 30 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Liverpool Montevideo wins 2Draws 3Progreso wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-31ProgresoLiverpool MontevideoUruguay Primera División3-3
2025-10-26Liverpool MontevideoProgresoPrimera División - Clausura3-1
2025-04-27ProgresoLiverpool MontevideoUruguay Primera División0-2
2024-11-03Liverpool MontevideoProgresoPrimera División - Clausura2-1
2024-04-28ProgresoLiverpool MontevideoPrimera División - Apertura2-1
2021-10-03Liverpool MontevideoProgresoPrimera División - Clausura0-1
2021-06-04ProgresoLiverpool MontevideoPrimera División - Apertura1-3
2021-01-30ProgresoLiverpool MontevideoPrimera División - Clausura0-4
2020-03-08Liverpool MontevideoProgresoPrimera División - Apertura1-1
2019-09-22ProgresoLiverpool MontevideoPrimera División - Clausura2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 55.3%, draw 25.3%, away 19.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.66 4.18 4.86
Bet365 1.65 3.50 4.50
BetVictor 1.65 3.60 4.75
Betano 1.70 3.55 4.40
Betfair 1.60 3.75 4.75
Marathonbet 1.60 3.58 4.70
Pinnacle 1.68 3.94 4.92
SBO 1.58 3.36 4.21
William Hill 1.65 3.80 4.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.65 ▲ +0.08
X 3.60 ▼ -0.07
2 4.70 ▼ -0.30

12 snapshots recorded, from .