Uruguay Primera División
·
Full time
·Clausura - 8
Defensor Sporting
vs
Danubio
1 – 0 Full time
| 20′ | Emiliano Velázquez | ||
| 46′ | Emiliano VelázquezCristhian Tizón | ||
| 46′ | Facundo BalattiLuis Femia | ||
| 57′ | Edgar ElizaldeFrancisco Sorondo | ||
| 63′ | Maicol FerreiraBenjamin Azambuja Vargas | ||
| 63′ | Sebastián FernándezIvo Costantino | ||
| 65′ | Tomás PozzoXavier Biscayzacu | ||
| 65′ | Nicolás MedinaNicolas Scotti Urruty | ||
| 68′ | Lucas De los Santos | ||
| 79′ | Brian MontenegroJuan Díaz | ||
| 79′ | Germán BarriosMartín Rabuñal | ||
| 83′ | Lucas Agazzi | ||
| 84′ | Ivo Costantino | ||
| 85′ | Sebastián Rodríguez | ||
| 86′ | Sebastián RodríguezEnzo Cabrera |
Defensor Sporting
42%
Draw
30%
Danubio
28%
Defensor Sporting vs Danubio overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Defensor Sporting vs Danubio
| Probability | Defensor Sporting | Draw | Danubio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.3% | 33.5% | 23.2% |
| Market | 40.9% | 29.0% | 30.0% |
| Final | 41.5% | 30.2% | 28.3% |
| Edge | +2.4% | +4.5% | -6.8% |
Why Defensor Sporting
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.15 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Defensor Sporting below the model: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
84%
2+ goals
58%
3+ goals
30%
No goals
16%
Defensor Sporting and Danubio expected goals
Defensor Sporting
1.15
Danubio
0.76
Total expected goals: 1.91
Defensor Sporting and Danubio attack and defence ratings
Defensor Sporting
Attack
0.86 -14%
Defence
1.30 +30%
Danubio
Attack
0.55 -45%
Defence
1.02 +2%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Defensor Sporting vs Danubio: result vs prediction
Defensor Sporting 1 – 0 Danubio
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Clausura - 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Defensor Sporting vs Danubio markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Defensor Sporting | 41.5% | 2.41 | +2.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.3% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.7% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.7% | 1.76 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Defensor Sporting | 41.5% |
| Draw | 30.2% | |
| Danubio | 28.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 70.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.7% |
| No | 62.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Defensor Sporting win | 19.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.3% | |
| Loss | 56.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 16.1% |
| 1-0 | 15.7% | |
| 1-1 | 14.3% |
Defensor Sporting vs Danubio stats
Defensor Sporting and Danubio recent form
| Defensor Sporting |
LWDLDL |
| Danubio |
DDLLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Defensor Sporting and Danubio going into this match
Defensor Sporting record
- They have won 7 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Danubio record
- They have won 4 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 29 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Defensor Sporting vs Danubio head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Defensor Sporting wins
5Draws
1Danubio wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | Danubio | Defensor Sporting | Uruguay Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-19 | Defensor Sporting | Danubio | Primera División - Clausura | 2-1 |
| 2025-03-27 | Danubio | Defensor Sporting | Uruguay Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2024-10-05 | Danubio | Defensor Sporting | Primera División - Clausura | 1-1 |
| 2024-03-30 | Defensor Sporting | Danubio | Primera División - Apertura | 1-0 |
| 2024-03-14 | Defensor Sporting | Danubio | Copa Uruguay | 1-0 |
| 2023-12-07 | Defensor Sporting | Danubio | Primera División - Clausura | 0-2 |
| 2023-07-14 | Defensor Sporting | Danubio | Primera División - Apertura | 2-1 |
| 2023-05-14 | Danubio | Defensor Sporting | Primera División - Apertura | 1-1 |
| 2023-03-07 | Defensor Sporting | Danubio | CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Defensor Sporting vs Danubio odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.9%, draw 29.0%, away 30.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.04 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 2.90 | 3.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.13 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.05 | 3.05 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.18 | 3.10 | 2.96 |
| Pinnacle | 2.32 | 3.33 | 3.16 |
| SBO | 2.18 | 2.95 | 2.83 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.20 —
X
3.10 ▲ +0.01
2
3.00 ▼ -0.12
10 snapshots recorded, from .