Uruguay Primera División
·
Full time
·Clausura - 7
Club Nacional
vs
Defensor Sporting
3 – 2 Full time
| 27′ | G. Barrios | ||
| 33′ | A. Frugone | ||
| 35′ | F. Calvo | ||
| 37′ | R. Botta | ||
| 57′ | M. SilveraM. Gomez | ||
| 57′ | C. CandidoR. Martinez | ||
| 57′ | R. BottaA. Martinez | ||
| 61′ | A. FrugoneN. Medina | ||
| 61′ | A. TorteroloE. Cuello | ||
| 63′ | G. De los Santos | ||
| 68′ | G. BarriosM. Rabunal | ||
| 72′ | N. Medina | ||
| 74′ | L. BoggioL. Gonzalez | ||
| 79′ | G. RodriguezM. Caballero | ||
| 79′ | L. AgazziN. Scotti | ||
| 84′ | L. Rodriguez | ||
| 89′ | M. Gomez | ||
| 90′ | M. Gomez | ||
| 90′ | F. Calvo | ||
| 90′ | A. Frugone | ||
| 90′ | T. CorreaS. Silva | ||
| 90′ | M. Gomez |
Club Nacional
54%
Draw
26%
Defensor Sporting
19%
Club Nacional vs Defensor Sporting overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Club Nacional vs Defensor Sporting
| Probability | Club Nacional | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.3% | 29.8% | 20.9% |
| Market | 55.9% | 25.2% | 18.9% |
| Final | 54.3% | 26.3% | 19.4% |
| Edge | -6.6% | +4.6% | +2.1% |
Why Club Nacional
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.41 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
88%
2+ goals
67%
3+ goals
39%
No goals
12%
Club Nacional and Defensor Sporting expected goals
Club Nacional
1.41
Defensor Sporting
0.83
Total expected goals: 2.24
Club Nacional and Defensor Sporting attack and defence ratings
Club Nacional
Attack
0.93 -7%
Defence
1.01 +1%
Defensor Sporting
Attack
0.77 -23%
Defence
1.17 +17%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Club Nacional vs Defensor Sporting: result vs prediction
Club Nacional 3 – 2 Defensor Sporting
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Clausura - 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Club Nacional vs Defensor Sporting markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club Nacional | 54.3% | 1.84 | -6.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club Nacional | 54.3% |
| Draw | 26.3% | |
| Defensor Sporting | 19.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.9% |
| No | 56.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Club Nacional win | 24.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.4% | |
| Loss | 50.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.7% |
| 1-1 | 13.7% | |
| 0-0 | 11.9% |
Club Nacional vs Defensor Sporting stats
Club Nacional and Defensor Sporting recent form
| Club Nacional |
DDWWLL |
| Defensor Sporting |
WDLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Club Nacional and Defensor Sporting going into this match
Club Nacional record
- They have won 13 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Defensor Sporting record
- They have won 7 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Club Nacional vs Defensor Sporting head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Club Nacional wins
6Draws
1Defensor Sporting wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Defensor Sporting | Club Nacional | Uruguay Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Defensor Sporting | Club Nacional | Primera División - Clausura | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-18 | Club Nacional | Defensor Sporting | Uruguay Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2024-12-06 | Club Nacional | Defensor Sporting | Copa Uruguay | 2-2 |
| 2024-09-21 | Club Nacional | Defensor Sporting | Primera División - Clausura | 1-1 |
| 2024-03-10 | Defensor Sporting | Club Nacional | Primera División - Apertura | 3-3 |
| 2023-12-04 | Club Nacional | Defensor Sporting | Primera División - Clausura | 1-0 |
| 2023-05-07 | Defensor Sporting | Club Nacional | Primera División - Apertura | 2-2 |
| 2022-10-08 | Club Nacional | Defensor Sporting | Primera División - Clausura | 1-1 |
| 2022-06-13 | Defensor Sporting | Club Nacional | Primera División - Apertura | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Club Nacional vs Defensor Sporting odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.9%, draw 25.2%, away 18.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.61 | 3.55 | 4.91 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 3.60 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.70 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.65 | 3.60 | 4.55 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 3.60 | 4.75 |
| Marathonbet | 1.59 | 3.55 | 4.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.67 | 3.81 | 5.26 |
| SBO | 1.57 | 3.40 | 4.66 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.60 | 5.00 |