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Uruguay Primera División · Full time ·Clausura - 6

Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado

1 – 0 Full time

18′M. Gonzalez
21′C. Tabo
38′G. Larrazabal
46′H. MenosseN. Fuica
64′A. TorteroloN. Scotti
70′N. WunschT. A. Pozzo
70′G. BarriosE. Cuello
73′G. LarrazabalL. Nunez
73′M. GonzalezC. Mayada
80′S. Cartagena
80′B. Montenegro
80′C. TaboG. Sosa
84′E. Elizalde
88′B. MontenegroJ. Diaz
89′G. RodriguezM. Rabunal
89′S. RamirezL. Ibanez

Estadio Luis Franzini, MontevideoReferee: M. De Armas

Defensor Sporting 30%
Draw 29%
Deportivo Maldonado 41%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDefensor SportingDrawDeportivo Maldonado
Model18.0%28.9%53.1%
Market33.6%29.4%37.0%
Final29.7%29.3%41.0%
Edge-15.6%-0.5%+16.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Deportivo Maldonado

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 0.76.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Deportivo Maldonado below the model: +16.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Defensor Sport ↓ / Deportivo Mald → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 15% 12% 1 13% 9% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 66%
3+ goals 39%
No goals 12%

Defensor Sporting and Deportivo Maldonado expected goals

Defensor Sporting 0.76
Deportivo Maldonado 1.47

Total expected goals: 2.23

Defensor Sporting and Deportivo Maldonado attack and defence ratings

Defensor Sporting

Attack 0.76 -24%
Defence 1.28 +28%

Deportivo Maldonado

Attack 1.09 +9%
Defence 0.76 -24%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado: result vs prediction

Defensor Sporting 1 – 0 Deportivo Maldonado

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 6 fixtures

Uruguay Primera División

Before and after this match

Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Deportivo Maldonado 41.0% 2.44 +16.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 61.5% 1.63 — —
Both teams to score No 57.9% 1.73 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 70.7% 1.41 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 46.9% 2.13 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Defensor Sporting29.7%
Draw29.3%
Deportivo Maldonado41.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.538.5%
Under 2.561.5%
Both teams to scoreYes42.1%
No57.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)59.0%
12 (either side)70.7%
X2 (draw or away)70.3%
Handicap -1Deportivo Maldonado win27.8%
Push (exactly one goal)25.3%
Loss46.9%
Correct score (top 3)0-114.7%
1-113.2%
0-012.0%

Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado stats

Defensor Sporting and Deportivo Maldonado recent form

newest first
Defensor Sporting DLDLLW
Deportivo Maldonado WLDWDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Defensor Sporting and Deportivo Maldonado going into this match

league record before kick-off

Defensor Sporting record

  • They have won 6 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 27 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Deportivo Maldonado record

  • They have won 14 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Defensor Sporting wins 3Draws 4Deportivo Maldonado wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-15Deportivo MaldonadoDefensor SportingUruguay Primera División1-0
2024-09-29Defensor SportingDeportivo MaldonadoPrimera División - Clausura3-1
2024-06-08Deportivo MaldonadoDefensor SportingPrimera División - Apertura0-2
2024-03-24Deportivo MaldonadoDefensor SportingPrimera División - Apertura1-0
2023-11-25Deportivo MaldonadoDefensor SportingPrimera División - Clausura2-1
2023-04-22Defensor SportingDeportivo MaldonadoPrimera División - Apertura1-1
2022-10-15Deportivo MaldonadoDefensor SportingPrimera División - Clausura0-0
2022-05-29Defensor SportingDeportivo MaldonadoPrimera División - Apertura1-1
2021-03-18Deportivo MaldonadoDefensor SportingPrimera División - Clausura2-1
2020-09-19Defensor SportingDeportivo MaldonadoPrimera División - Apertura4-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.1%, draw 29.7%, away 37.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.78 3.10 2.45
1xBet 2.70 3.08 2.41
888Sport 2.80 3.00 2.45
Bet365 2.70 3.00 2.45
BetVictor 2.75 3.13 2.50
Betano 2.75 3.05 2.45
Betfair 2.75 3.10 2.38
Marathonbet 2.70 3.08 2.41
Pinnacle 2.80 3.22 2.63
SBO 2.61 2.84 2.30
Unibet 2.75 3.05 2.43
William Hill 2.70 3.00 2.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.70 ▼ -0.16
X 3.08 ▲ +0.06
2 2.45 ▲ +0.05

14 snapshots recorded, from .