Uruguay Primera División
·
Full time
·Clausura - 6
Juventud
vs
Danubio
1 – 1 Full time
| 20′ | S. Fernandez | ||
| 46′ | R. RabinoK. Rolon | ||
| 46′ | E. MasF. Risso | ||
| 59′ | A. AlanizF. Mimbacas | ||
| 67′ | S. FernandezE. Cabrera | ||
| 67′ | M. BrasilE. Velazquez | ||
| 67′ | G. PereiroM. Diaz | ||
| 69′ | T. Cavanagh | ||
| 75′ | B. TomatisI. Costantino | ||
| 75′ | M. PeraltaJ. Trasante | ||
| 79′ | A. CruzB. Arady | ||
| 81′ | S. Sosa | ||
| 82′ | E. Velazquez | ||
| 82′ | L. SosaC. Tizon | ||
| 86′ | F. Mimbacas |
Juventud
49%
Draw
29%
Danubio
22%
Juventud vs Danubio overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Juventud vs Danubio
| Probability | Juventud | Draw | Danubio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.3% | 28.8% | 10.9% |
| Market | 45.0% | 29.2% | 25.8% |
| Final | 48.8% | 29.1% | 22.1% |
| Edge | +15.3% | -0.4% | -14.9% |
Why Juventud
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.47.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Juventud below the model: +15.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
84%
2+ goals
57%
3+ goals
29%
No goals
16%
Juventud and Danubio expected goals
Juventud
1.43
Danubio
0.47
Total expected goals: 1.89
Juventud and Danubio attack and defence ratings
Juventud
Attack
1.00 +0%
Defence
0.94 -6%
Danubio
Attack
0.47 -53%
Defence
1.10 +10%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Juventud vs Danubio: result vs prediction
Juventud 1 – 1 Danubio
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Clausura - 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Juventud vs Danubio markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juventud | 48.8% | 2.05 | +15.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 70.7% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.9% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.9% | 2.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juventud | 48.8% |
| Draw | 29.1% | |
| Danubio | 22.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 70.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 29.3% |
| No | 70.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Juventud win | 31.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28.5% | |
| Loss | 39.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 20.5% |
| 0-0 | 16.0% | |
| 2-0 | 15.4% |
Juventud vs Danubio stats
Juventud and Danubio recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Juventud and Danubio going into this match
Juventud record
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Danubio record
- They have won 4 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 27 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Juventud vs Danubio head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
2Juventud wins
4Draws
4Danubio wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Danubio | Juventud | Uruguay Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-16 | Danubio | Juventud | Uruguay Primera División | 4-1 |
| 2025-08-10 | Danubio | Juventud | Primera División - Clausura | 2-1 |
| 2025-06-21 | Juventud | Danubio | Uruguay Primera División | 3-1 |
| 2025-02-09 | Juventud | Danubio | Uruguay Primera División | 2-2 |
| 2021-10-13 | Danubio | Juventud | Segunda División | 0-1 |
| 2021-07-01 | Juventud | Danubio | Segunda División | 0-1 |
| 2019-11-09 | Juventud | Danubio | Primera División - Clausura | 0-0 |
| 2019-07-13 | Juventud | Danubio | Primera División - Clausura | 2-2 |
| 2019-05-05 | Danubio | Juventud | Primera División - Apertura | 4-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Juventud vs Danubio odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.1%, draw 29.2%, away 25.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.98 | 3.20 | 3.65 |
| 1xBet | 2.01 | 3.10 | 3.58 |
| 888Sport | 2.10 | 3.00 | 3.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.10 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 3.05 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.10 | 3.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.99 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| Pinnacle | 2.12 | 3.19 | 3.78 |
| SBO | 1.91 | 2.94 | 3.26 |
| Unibet | 2.00 | 3.10 | 3.55 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.00 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.01 ▲ +0.04
X
3.10 ▲ +0.08
2
3.50 ▼ -0.33
13 snapshots recorded, from .