Uruguay Primera División · 2026-09-13T22:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Clausura - 6

Penarol vs Albion FC

3 – 1 Full time

17′			C. Jaime
25′			L. Ferreira
60′			M. Arezo
61′			N. Fernandez
65′			B. Llana
66′			C. AiralaA. Vera
66′			N. NeiraT. Moschion
68′			J. CabreraT. N. Espinosa Dovat
68′			G. PezzellaF. Romero
74′			W. Aguerre
74′			A. Lopez
75′			M. ArezoA. Hernandez
75′			E. DariasI. Alegre
76′			A. LopezT. Figueroa
76′			H. ToledoI. Zufiaurre
79′			L. Ferreira
85′			C. JaimeLucas Hernandez

Estadio Centenario, MontevideoReferee: E. Guerra

Penarol

66%

Draw

22%

Albion FC

12%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Penarol vs Albion FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Penarol vs Albion FC

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Penarol	Draw	Albion FC
Model	74.5%	18.8%	6.8%
Market	63.2%	23.1%	13.7%
Final	66.0%	22.0%	12.0%
Edge	+11.2%	-4.3%	-6.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Penarol

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 0.51.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
The market prices Penarol below the model: +11.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

92%

2+ goals

75%

3+ goals

49%

No goals

Penarol and Albion FC expected goals

Penarol

2.14

Albion FC

0.51

Total expected goals: 2.65

Penarol and Albion FC attack and defence ratings

Penarol

Attack

1.47 +47%

Defence

0.61 -39%

Albion FC

Attack

0.79 -21%

Defence

1.13 +13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Penarol vs Albion FC: result vs prediction

Penarol 3 – 1 Albion FC

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 6 fixtures

Uruguay Primera División

Racing Montevideo v Boston River — match page · 2026-09-12
Wanderers vs Club Nacional · 2026-09-12
Cerro Largo vs Central Espanol — team news & stats · 2026-09-12
Progreso vs Cerro · 2026-09-13
Juventud v Danubio — match page · 2026-09-13
Defensor Sporting v Deportivo Maldonado — match page · 2026-09-13
Atletico Torque vs Liverpool Montevideo — team news & stats · 2026-09-14

Before and after this match

Penarol, previous: Danubio vs Penarol: odds and pick
Penarol, next: Cerro – Penarol, 2026-09-19
Albion FC, previous: Albion FC v Progreso analysis
Albion FC, next: Albion FC vs Juventud: odds and pick

Penarol vs Albion FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Penarol	66.0%	1.51	+11.2%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	50.6%	1.98	—	—
Both teams to score	No	63.9%	1.57	—	—
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	88.0%	1.14	—	—
Handicap -1	Penarol win	50.3%	1.99	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Penarol	66.0%
	Draw	22.0%
	Albion FC	12.0%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	49.4%
	Under 2.5	50.6%
Both teams to score	Yes	36.1%
	No	63.9%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	88.0%
	12 (either side)	78.0%
	X2 (draw or away)	34.0%
Handicap -1	Penarol win	50.3%
	Push (exactly one goal)	24.2%
	Loss	25.5%
Correct score (top 3)	2-0	16.1%
	1-0	14.3%
	3-0	11.5%

Penarol vs Albion FC stats

Penarol and Albion FC recent form

newest first

Penarol	WLDWWW
Albion FC	LLLLLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Penarol and Albion FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Penarol record

They have won 16 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
They have kept 10 clean sheets in 27 matches.
They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Albion FC record

They have won 9 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Penarol vs Albion FC head-to-head

Last 4 meetings

3Penarol wins 1Draws 0Albion FC wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-03-14	Albion FC	Penarol	Uruguay Primera División	0-1
2022-08-13	Penarol	Albion FC	Primera División - Clausura	2-0
2022-07-23	Albion FC	Penarol	Primera División - Apertura	1-3
2022-02-19	Albion FC	Penarol	Primera División - Apertura	1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Penarol vs Albion FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 63.0%, draw 23.1%, away 13.9%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	1.44	4.00	7.00
1xBet	1.43	3.92	6.87
888Sport	1.44	4.00	6.50
Bet365	1.42	3.60	7.00
BetVictor	1.44	3.90	7.00
Betano	1.47	3.85	6.10
Betfair	1.40	4.00	6.50
Marathonbet	1.42	3.92	6.60
Pinnacle	1.46	4.35	7.28
SBO	1.38	3.67	5.80
Unibet	1.52	3.65	5.75
William Hill	1.44	4.00	6.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.43 ▼ -0.10

X 3.92 ▲ +0.34

2 6.60 ▲ +0.95

14 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-07T08:10:02Z.