Albion FC
vs
Progreso
0 – 1 Full time
| 21′ | N. Lopez | ||
| 36′ | E. Alvarez | ||
| 45′ | F. Ginella | ||
| 46′ | R. GutierrezF. Puente | ||
| 46′ | M. de los SantosB. Llana | ||
| 59′ | S. CostaA. Vera | ||
| 59′ | J. AlvarezB. Acosta | ||
| 70′ | F. GinellaN. Neira | ||
| 75′ | A. OcampoN. Acosta | ||
| 84′ | E. AlvarezG. Trasante | ||
| 84′ | N. LopezL. Couture | ||
| 84′ | R. CristobalA. Codagnone | ||
| 84′ | L. VianaM. Juambeltz | ||
| 90′ | B. Llana | ||
| 90′ | P. Lacoste | ||
| 90′ | G. Trasante |
Albion FC vs Progreso overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Albion FC vs Progreso
| Probability | Albion FC | Draw | Progreso |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.1% | 31.2% | 20.7% |
| Market | 45.1% | 28.0% | 26.9% |
| Final | 45.8% | 28.8% | 25.4% |
| Edge | +3.0% | +3.2% | -6.2% |
Why Albion FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.77.
- The market prices Albion FC below the model: +3.0 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Albion FC and Progreso expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.07
Albion FC and Progreso attack and defence ratings
Albion FC
Progreso
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Albion FC vs Progreso: result vs prediction
Albion FC 0 – 1 Progreso
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Clausura - 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Albion FC vs Progreso markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Albion FC | 45.8% | 2.18 | +3.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.7% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.7% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Albion FC | 45.8% |
| Draw | 28.8% | |
| Progreso | 25.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.3% |
| No | 59.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Albion FC win | 23.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.9% | |
| Loss | 51.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.2% |
| 1-1 | 13.9% | |
| 0-0 | 13.9% |
Albion FC vs Progreso stats
Albion FC and Progreso recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Albion FC and Progreso going into this match
Albion FC record
- They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Progreso record
- They have won 5 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Albion FC vs Progreso head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Albion FC | Progreso | Copa Uruguay | 2-1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Progreso | Albion FC | Uruguay Primera División | 1-2 |
| 2026-03-07 | Progreso | Albion FC | Uruguay Primera División | 2-2 |
| 2023-11-29 | Progreso | Albion FC | Segunda División | 3-2 |
| 2023-07-22 | Albion FC | Progreso | Segunda División | 3-0 |
| 2023-04-22 | Progreso | Albion FC | Segunda División | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Albion FC vs Progreso odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.1%, draw 28.0%, away 26.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.08 | 3.25 | 3.30 |
| 1xBet | 1.99 | 3.32 | 3.38 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.25 | 3.70 |
| Betano | 2.02 | 3.25 | 3.35 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.12 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.97 | 3.32 | 3.32 |
| Pinnacle | 2.05 | 3.57 | 3.55 |
| SBO | 1.98 | 3.00 | 3.23 |
| Superbet | 2.07 | 3.20 | 3.35 |
| Unibet | 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .