Garuda Lions
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Uruguay Primera División · Full time ·Clausura - 5

Liverpool Montevideo vs Boston River

1 – 0 Full time

3′S. Strasorier
11′R. A. Saravia Salvia
14′A. Cayetano
45′E. Castillo
46′F. MunoaA. Amado
67′M. RiveroA. Aguirre
67′F. AristeguiY. Gonzalez
68′L. Suhr
69′R. MachadoT. Brizuela
73′F. Martinez
79′F. MartinezD. Romero
79′F. PerdomoR. Haller
79′L. VazquezN. Siri
79′F. BonfiglioF. Avenatti
84′L. AcostaE. Olivera
84′R. BentancourtF. Barcelo
90′M. Gonzalez

Estadio Belvedere, MontevideoReferee: J. Feres

Liverpool Montevideo 56%
Draw 26%
Boston River 18%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Liverpool Montevideo vs Boston River overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Liverpool Montevideo vs Boston River

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLiverpool MontevideoDrawBoston River
Model66.0%23.4%10.6%
Market52.1%27.1%20.8%
Final55.5%26.2%18.3%
Edge+14.0%-3.7%-10.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Liverpool Montevideo

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 0.61.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Liverpool Montevideo below the model: +14.0 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Liverpool Mont ↓ / Boston River → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 1 15% 11% 2 15% 9% 3 9% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 71%
3+ goals 44%
No goals 10%

Liverpool Montevideo and Boston River expected goals

Liverpool Montevideo 1.83
Boston River 0.61

Total expected goals: 2.44

Liverpool Montevideo and Boston River attack and defence ratings

Liverpool Montevideo

Attack 1.24 +24%
Defence 0.62 -38%

Boston River

Attack 0.93 -7%
Defence 1.13 +13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Liverpool Montevideo vs Boston River: result vs prediction

Liverpool Montevideo 1 – 0 Boston River

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 5 fixtures

Uruguay Primera División

Before and after this match

Liverpool Montevideo vs Boston River markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Liverpool Montevideo 55.5% 1.80 +14.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 55.9% 1.79 — —
Both teams to score No 60.9% 1.64 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 81.7% 1.22 — —
Handicap -1 Liverpool Montevideo win 40.2% 2.48 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Liverpool Montevideo55.5%
Draw26.2%
Boston River18.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544.1%
Under 2.555.9%
Both teams to scoreYes39.1%
No60.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)81.7%
12 (either side)73.8%
X2 (draw or away)44.5%
Handicap -1Liverpool Montevideo win40.2%
Push (exactly one goal)25.7%
Loss34.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-015.0%
2-014.7%
1-110.6%

Liverpool Montevideo vs Boston River stats

Liverpool Montevideo and Boston River recent form

newest first
Liverpool Montevideo DWWWDW
Boston River DWDWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Liverpool Montevideo and Boston River going into this match

league record before kick-off

Liverpool Montevideo record

  • They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Boston River record

  • They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 12 of 26 matches.
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Liverpool Montevideo vs Boston River head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

7Liverpool Montevideo wins 2Draws 1Boston River wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-09-02Liverpool MontevideoBoston RiverCopa Uruguay0-1
2026-06-01Boston RiverLiverpool MontevideoUruguay Primera División0-1
2026-03-10Boston RiverLiverpool MontevideoUruguay Primera División0-1
2025-09-27Liverpool MontevideoBoston RiverPrimera División - Clausura2-1
2025-03-29Boston RiverLiverpool MontevideoUruguay Primera División0-1
2024-09-29Liverpool MontevideoBoston RiverPrimera División - Clausura1-1
2024-06-23Liverpool MontevideoBoston RiverPrimera División - Apertura1-0
2024-03-14Boston RiverLiverpool MontevideoPrimera División - Apertura1-1
2023-11-29Liverpool MontevideoBoston RiverPrimera División - Clausura2-0
2023-04-28Boston RiverLiverpool MontevideoPrimera División - Apertura1-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Liverpool Montevideo vs Boston River odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 51.1%, draw 27.2%, away 21.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.78 3.40 4.20
1xBet 1.74 3.34 4.43
Bet365 1.70 3.30 4.33
BetVictor 1.80 3.40 4.20
Betano 1.78 3.30 4.20
Betfair 1.91 3.20 3.75
Dafabet 1.81 3.55 4.60
Marathonbet 1.72 3.34 4.35
Pinnacle 1.81 3.62 4.47
SBO 1.67 3.19 3.88
Superbet 1.77 3.40 4.30
Unibet 1.97 3.35 3.75
William Hill 1.80 3.40 4.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.74 ▼ -0.06
X 3.34 ▼ -0.06
2 4.35 ▲ +0.20

13 snapshots recorded, from .