Uruguay Primera División
·
Full time
·Clausura - 4
Cerro Largo
vs
Liverpool Montevideo
1 – 1 Full time
| 41′ | Alexander Hernandez | ||
| 43′ | R. Bentancourt | ||
| 48′ | Axel Pandiani | ||
| 52′ | A. Pandiani | ||
| 61′ | G. VieraA. de Luca | ||
| 64′ | R. HallerD. Romero | ||
| 64′ | R. MachadoR. M. Degregorio | ||
| 70′ | Santiago Marcel | ||
| 78′ | D. DaguerreA. Prado | ||
| 78′ | A. PandianiB. Lozano | ||
| 85′ | K. LewisE. Olivera | ||
| 87′ | M. GarciaN. Ramos | ||
| 87′ | S. AssisA. Segovia | ||
| 89′ | N. GarayaldeS. Milano | ||
| 89′ | F. MartinezD. Zabala |
Cerro Largo
25%
Draw
31%
Liverpool Montevideo
44%
Cerro Largo vs Liverpool Montevideo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cerro Largo vs Liverpool Montevideo
| Probability | Cerro Largo | Draw | Liverpool Montevideo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18.4% | 33.3% | 48.3% |
| Market | 27.1% | 29.7% | 43.2% |
| Final | 24.9% | 30.6% | 44.5% |
| Edge | -8.7% | +3.6% | +5.1% |
Why Liverpool Montevideo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.19 vs 0.63.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Liverpool Montevideo below the model: +5.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
83%
2+ goals
55%
3+ goals
27%
No goals
17%
Cerro Largo and Liverpool Montevideo expected goals
Cerro Largo
0.63
Liverpool Montevideo
1.19
Total expected goals: 1.82
Cerro Largo and Liverpool Montevideo attack and defence ratings
Cerro Largo
Attack
0.85 -15%
Defence
0.87 -13%
Liverpool Montevideo
Attack
1.30 +30%
Defence
0.57 -43%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Cerro Largo vs Liverpool Montevideo: result vs prediction
Cerro Largo 1 – 1 Liverpool Montevideo
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Clausura - 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cerro Largo vs Liverpool Montevideo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Liverpool Montevideo | 44.5% | 2.25 | +5.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cerro Largo | 24.9% |
| Draw | 30.6% | |
| Liverpool Montevideo | 44.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 27.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 72.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33.7% |
| No | 66.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Liverpool Montevideo win | 22.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.3% | |
| Loss | 51.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 18.1% |
| 0-0 | 17.5% | |
| 1-1 | 13.4% |
Cerro Largo vs Liverpool Montevideo stats
Cerro Largo and Liverpool Montevideo recent form
| Cerro Largo |
DDDLWD |
| Liverpool Montevideo |
WWWDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cerro Largo and Liverpool Montevideo going into this match
Cerro Largo record
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
Liverpool Montevideo record
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cerro Largo vs Liverpool Montevideo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
2Cerro Largo wins
2Draws
6Liverpool Montevideo wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | Liverpool Montevideo | Cerro Largo | Uruguay Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Liverpool Montevideo | Cerro Largo | Uruguay Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Cerro Largo | Liverpool Montevideo | Primera División - Clausura | 2-0 |
| 2025-06-07 | Liverpool Montevideo | Cerro Largo | Uruguay Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-18 | Liverpool Montevideo | Cerro Largo | Uruguay Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2024-11-13 | Cerro Largo | Liverpool Montevideo | Primera División - Clausura | 0-0 |
| 2024-07-06 | Cerro Largo | Liverpool Montevideo | Primera División - Apertura | 1-0 |
| 2024-05-12 | Liverpool Montevideo | Cerro Largo | Primera División - Apertura | 2-1 |
| 2023-11-10 | Liverpool Montevideo | Cerro Largo | Primera División - Clausura | 3-0 |
| 2023-06-16 | Cerro Largo | Liverpool Montevideo | Primera División - Apertura | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cerro Largo vs Liverpool Montevideo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.1%, draw 29.7%, away 43.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.35 | 3.20 | 2.08 |
| 1xBet | 3.41 | 2.99 | 2.12 |
| Bet365 | 3.40 | 3.00 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.10 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.35 | 3.05 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 3.10 | 2.05 |
| Dafabet | 3.55 | 3.20 | 2.19 |
| Marathonbet | 3.34 | 2.99 | 2.10 |
| Pinnacle | 3.58 | 3.16 | 2.21 |
| SBO | 3.12 | 2.93 | 2.05 |
| Superbet | 3.40 | 3.05 | 2.15 |
| Unibet | 3.35 | 2.95 | 2.12 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 2.90 | 2.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.35 ▼ -0.17
X
3.05 ▼ -0.03
2
2.10 ▲ +0.06
11 snapshots recorded, from .