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Uruguay Primera División · Full time ·Clausura - 4

Juventud vs Deportivo Maldonado

2 – 0 Full time

Parque Artigas, Las PiedrasReferee: F. Vikonis

Juventud 32%
Draw 30%
Deportivo Maldonado 37%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Juventud vs Deportivo Maldonado overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Juventud vs Deportivo Maldonado

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityJuventudDrawDeportivo Maldonado
Model25.2%32.3%42.5%
Market34.6%29.8%35.6%
Final32.2%30.4%37.3%
Edge-9.3%+2.5%+6.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Deportivo Maldonado

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.20 vs 0.87.
  • The market prices Deportivo Maldonado below the model: +6.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Juventud ↓ / Deportivo Mald → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 14% 14% 9% 1 10% 14% 8% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 86%
2+ goals 62%
3+ goals 34%
No goals 14%

Juventud and Deportivo Maldonado expected goals

Juventud 0.87
Deportivo Maldonado 1.20

Total expected goals: 2.07

Juventud and Deportivo Maldonado attack and defence ratings

Juventud

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 0.96 -4%

Deportivo Maldonado

Attack 1.18 +18%
Defence 0.76 -24%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Juventud vs Deportivo Maldonado: result vs prediction

Juventud 2 – 0 Deportivo Maldonado

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 4 fixtures

Uruguay Primera División

Before and after this match

Juventud vs Deportivo Maldonado markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Deportivo Maldonado 37.3% 2.68 +6.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 65.8% 1.52 — —
Both teams to score No 58.2% 1.72 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 69.6% 1.44 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 57.8% 1.73 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Juventud32.2%
Draw30.4%
Deportivo Maldonado37.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.534.2%
Under 2.565.8%
Both teams to scoreYes41.8%
No58.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)62.7%
12 (either side)69.6%
X2 (draw or away)67.8%
Handicap -1Deportivo Maldonado win19.0%
Push (exactly one goal)23.2%
Loss57.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.5%
0-014.0%
0-113.9%

Juventud vs Deportivo Maldonado stats

Juventud and Deportivo Maldonado recent form

newest first
Juventud WLDDWL
Deportivo Maldonado DWDDLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Juventud and Deportivo Maldonado going into this match

league record before kick-off

Juventud record

  • They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Deportivo Maldonado record

  • They have won 13 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Juventud vs Deportivo Maldonado head-to-head

Last 6 meetings

3Juventud wins 2Draws 1Deportivo Maldonado wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-01Deportivo MaldonadoJuventudUruguay Primera División0-0
2026-03-02Deportivo MaldonadoJuventudUruguay Primera División2-1
2018-07-28Deportivo MaldonadoJuventudSegunda División0-1
2018-03-03JuventudDeportivo MaldonadoSegunda División2-0
2012-02-25JuventudDeportivo MaldonadoSegunda División0-0
2011-10-01Deportivo MaldonadoJuventudSegunda División1-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Juventud vs Deportivo Maldonado odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 34.6%, draw 29.8%, away 35.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.62 3.20 2.52
1xBet 2.61 3.05 2.50
Bet365 2.62 2.90 2.55
BetVictor 2.63 3.13 2.55
Betano 2.70 3.00 2.52
Betfair 2.55 3.25 2.50
Dafabet 2.85 3.15 2.65
Marathonbet 2.61 3.05 2.50
Pinnacle 2.75 3.14 2.64
SBO 2.48 2.89 2.36
Superbet 2.72 3.00 2.57
Unibet 2.70 3.15 2.55
William Hill 2.70 3.00 2.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.63 ▼ -0.08
X 3.05 ▼ -0.01
2 2.55 ▲ +0.10

11 snapshots recorded, from .