Uruguay Primera División
·
Full time
·Clausura - 4
Penarol
vs
Club Nacional
0 – 1 Full time
| 14′ | M. GomezM. Silvera | ||
| 24′ | F. Calvo | ||
| 39′ | L. Ferreira | ||
| 45′ | L. Rodriguez | ||
| 46′ | L. FerreiraB. Barboza | ||
| 46′ | R. MartinezC. Candido | ||
| 58′ | T. N. Espinosa DovatLucas Hernandez | ||
| 58′ | A. HernandezG. Gelini | ||
| 62′ | L. RodriguezB. Zuculini | ||
| 74′ | N. FernandezE. Remedi | ||
| 74′ | J. CabreraL. Angulo | ||
| 74′ | E. AnchetaN. Rodriguez | ||
| 74′ | S. SilvaL. Gonzalez | ||
| 75′ | E. Darias | ||
| 79′ | F. Calvo | ||
| 84′ | L. Mejia | ||
| 90′ | C. Jaime |
Penarol
66%
Draw
24%
Club Nacional
11%
Penarol vs Club Nacional overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Penarol vs Club Nacional
| Probability | Penarol | Draw | Club Nacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.6% | 23.6% | 10.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 65.6% | 23.6% | 10.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Penarol
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 0.61.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
90%
2+ goals
71%
3+ goals
44%
No goals
10%
Penarol and Club Nacional expected goals
Penarol
1.83
Club Nacional
0.61
Total expected goals: 2.44
Penarol and Club Nacional attack and defence ratings
Penarol
Attack
1.39 +39%
Defence
0.64 -36%
Club Nacional
Attack
0.90 -10%
Defence
1.01 +1%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Penarol vs Club Nacional: result vs prediction
Penarol 0 – 1 Club Nacional
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Clausura - 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Penarol vs Club Nacional markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penarol | 65.6% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.2% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Penarol win | 40.0% | 2.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penarol | 65.6% |
| Draw | 23.6% | |
| Club Nacional | 10.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.3% |
| No | 60.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 34.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Penarol win | 40.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.7% | |
| Loss | 34.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.0% |
| 2-0 | 14.6% | |
| 1-1 | 10.7% |
Penarol vs Club Nacional stats
Penarol and Club Nacional recent form
| Penarol |
DWWWWD |
| Club Nacional |
WLLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Penarol and Club Nacional going into this match
Penarol record
- They have won 15 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Club Nacional record
- They have won 13 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Penarol vs Club Nacional head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
1Penarol wins
2Draws
0Club Nacional wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | Club Nacional | Penarol | Uruguay Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2025-07-06 | Penarol | Club Nacional | Uruguay Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2025-02-09 | Club Nacional | Penarol | Uruguay Primera División | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.