Club Nacional
vs
Progreso
1 – 0 Full time
Club Nacional vs Progreso overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Club Nacional vs Progreso
| Probability | Club Nacional | Draw | Progreso |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.8% | 30.5% | 19.7% |
| Market | 65.8% | 21.1% | 13.1% |
| Final | 61.8% | 23.5% | 14.7% |
| Edge | -16.0% | +9.4% | +6.6% |
Why Club Nacional
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Club Nacional and Progreso expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.12
Club Nacional and Progreso attack and defence ratings
Club Nacional
Progreso
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Club Nacional vs Progreso: result vs prediction
Club Nacional 1 – 0 Progreso
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Clausura - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Club Nacional vs Progreso markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club Nacional | 61.8% | 1.62 | -16.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.3% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.0% | 2.00 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club Nacional | 61.8% |
| Draw | 23.5% | |
| Progreso | 14.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.8% |
| No | 59.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Club Nacional win | 24.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.2% | |
| Loss | 50.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.1% |
| 1-1 | 13.6% | |
| 0-0 | 13.3% |
Club Nacional vs Progreso stats
Club Nacional and Progreso recent form
| Club Nacional |
LLWWLL |
| Progreso |
LLLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Club Nacional and Progreso going into this match
Club Nacional record
- They have won 13 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Progreso record
- They have won 5 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Club Nacional vs Progreso head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Club Nacional | Progreso | Uruguay Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Progreso | Club Nacional | Uruguay Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2025-05-23 | Club Nacional | Progreso | Uruguay Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2025-02-16 | Progreso | Club Nacional | Uruguay Primera División | 1-5 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Club Nacional vs Progreso odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 65.8%, draw 21.1%, away 13.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.38 | 4.25 | 7.17 |
| 888Sport | 1.40 | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.38 | 4.20 | 6.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.36 | 4.33 | 7.50 |
| Betano | 1.40 | 4.25 | 6.60 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 4.40 | 7.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.43 | 4.60 | 7.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.37 | 4.25 | 6.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.42 | 4.65 | 7.43 |
| SBO | 1.36 | 4.00 | 6.38 |
| Superbet | 1.39 | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| Unibet | 1.43 | 4.10 | 6.25 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.40 | 7.00 |