Progreso
vs
Danubio
1 – 0 Full time
Progreso vs Danubio overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Progreso vs Danubio
| Probability | Progreso | Draw | Danubio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.1% | 41.3% | 30.6% |
| Market | 30.5% | 31.1% | 38.5% |
| Final | 29.9% | 33.6% | 36.5% |
| Edge | -2.3% | +10.2% | -7.9% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Progreso and Danubio expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.36
Progreso and Danubio attack and defence ratings
Progreso
Danubio
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Progreso vs Danubio: result vs prediction
Progreso 1 – 0 Danubio
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Clausura - 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Progreso vs Danubio markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Danubio | 36.5% | 2.74 | -7.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 84.3% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 69.6% | 1.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Progreso | 29.9% |
| Draw | 33.6% | |
| Danubio | 36.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 15.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 84.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 25.6% |
| No | 74.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Danubio win | 9.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 69.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 26.8% |
| 0-1 | 16.8% | |
| 1-0 | 15.7% |
Progreso vs Danubio stats
Progreso and Danubio recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Progreso and Danubio going into this match
Progreso record
- They have won 5 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Danubio record
- They have won 4 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 26 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Progreso vs Danubio head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Danubio | Progreso | Uruguay Primera División | 1-2 |
| 2026-02-28 | Danubio | Progreso | Uruguay Primera División | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-24 | Progreso | Danubio | Primera División - Clausura | 1-0 |
| 2025-05-31 | Progreso | Danubio | Uruguay Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2025-02-23 | Danubio | Progreso | Uruguay Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2024-10-12 | Progreso | Danubio | Primera División - Clausura | 0-0 |
| 2024-04-06 | Danubio | Progreso | Primera División - Apertura | 1-1 |
| 2022-08-31 | Progreso | Danubio | Copa Uruguay | 2-2 |
| 2021-02-15 | Danubio | Progreso | Primera División - Clausura | 0-1 |
| 2020-08-22 | Progreso | Danubio | Primera División - Apertura | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Progreso vs Danubio odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.5%, draw 31.1%, away 38.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.92 | 3.10 | 2.36 |
| 1xBet | 3.17 | 2.78 | 2.36 |
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 2.90 | 2.92 | 2.42 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 3.05 | 3.10 | 2.50 |
| Marathonbet | 3.10 | 2.78 | 2.34 |
| Pinnacle | 2.98 | 3.25 | 2.39 |
| SBO | 2.75 | 2.80 | 2.22 |
| Unibet | 2.88 | 2.95 | 2.35 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 2.90 | 2.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .