Uruguay Primera División
·
Full time
·Clausura - 5
Danubio
vs
Penarol
0 – 4 Full time
| 16′ | L. Umpierrez | ||
| 46′ | E. FemiaC. Tizon | ||
| 46′ | J. TrasanteJ. Millan | ||
| 55′ | M. Arezo | ||
| 56′ | M. Arezo | ||
| 58′ | M. PeraltaE. Figueroa | ||
| 58′ | I. RossiE. Cabrera | ||
| 60′ | L. Umpierrez | ||
| 61′ | M. LemosG. Pezzella | ||
| 61′ | E. RemediT. Olase | ||
| 61′ | M. ArezoA. Hernandez | ||
| 70′ | E. DariasJ. Rodriguez | ||
| 77′ | L. UmpierrezG. Gelini | ||
| 80′ | S. FernandezM. Ferreira |
Danubio
18%
Draw
29%
Penarol
53%
Danubio vs Penarol overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Danubio vs Penarol
| Probability | Danubio | Draw | Penarol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13.4% | 34.4% | 52.2% |
| Market | 19.9% | 27.1% | 53.0% |
| Final | 18.2% | 29.0% | 52.8% |
| Edge | -6.4% | +7.3% | -0.9% |
Why Penarol
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.14 vs 0.45.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
78%
2+ goals
48%
3+ goals
21%
No goals
22%
Danubio and Penarol expected goals
Danubio
0.45
Penarol
1.14
Total expected goals: 1.58
Danubio and Penarol attack and defence ratings
Danubio
Attack
0.51 -49%
Defence
0.86 -14%
Penarol
Attack
1.26 +26%
Defence
0.67 -33%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Danubio vs Penarol: result vs prediction
Danubio 0 – 4 Penarol
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Clausura - 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Danubio vs Penarol markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penarol | 52.8% | 1.89 | -0.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 78.8% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 81.8% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.8% | 2.09 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Danubio | 18.2% |
| Draw | 29.0% | |
| Penarol | 52.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 21.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 78.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 25.5% |
| No | 74.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 47.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 81.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Penarol win | 23.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28.8% | |
| Loss | 47.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 22.3% |
| 0-0 | 21.6% | |
| 0-2 | 13.3% |
Danubio vs Penarol stats
Danubio and Penarol recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Danubio and Penarol going into this match
Danubio record
- They have won 4 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 26 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Penarol record
- They have won 15 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Danubio vs Penarol head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
2Danubio wins
2Draws
6Penarol wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Penarol | Danubio | Uruguay Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Penarol | Danubio | Primera División - Clausura | 2-0 |
| 2025-04-05 | Danubio | Penarol | Uruguay Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2024-10-16 | Danubio | Penarol | Primera División - Clausura | 0-1 |
| 2024-04-14 | Penarol | Danubio | Primera División - Apertura | 2-0 |
| 2023-11-19 | Danubio | Penarol | Primera División - Clausura | 2-1 |
| 2023-07-08 | Danubio | Penarol | Primera División - Apertura | 1-0 |
| 2023-04-15 | Penarol | Danubio | Primera División - Apertura | 2-0 |
| 2022-08-28 | Penarol | Danubio | Primera División - Clausura | 1-1 |
| 2022-03-05 | Danubio | Penarol | Primera División - Apertura | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Danubio vs Penarol odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 19.6%, draw 27.2%, away 53.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 4.85 | 3.35 | 1.71 |
| 1xBet | 4.64 | 3.38 | 1.70 |
| Bet365 | 4.50 | 3.20 | 1.73 |
| BetVictor | 5.00 | 3.30 | 1.73 |
| Betano | 4.60 | 3.25 | 1.75 |
| Betfair | 4.75 | 3.40 | 1.70 |
| Dafabet | 5.00 | 3.50 | 1.77 |
| Marathonbet | 4.55 | 3.38 | 1.68 |
| Pinnacle | 4.87 | 3.67 | 1.75 |
| SBO | 4.34 | 3.07 | 1.63 |
| Superbet | 4.70 | 3.35 | 1.73 |
| Unibet | 5.40 | 3.40 | 1.70 |
| William Hill | 4.60 | 3.40 | 1.73 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
4.62 ▲ +0.88
X
3.38 ▲ +0.12
2
1.73 ▼ -0.19
11 snapshots recorded, from .