Uruguay Primera División
·
Full time
·Clausura - 5
Cerro
vs
Racing Montevideo
1 – 0 Full time
| 9′ | D. Suarez | ||
| 30′ | J. Amaro | ||
| 45′ | C. Barros | ||
| 46′ | J. AmaroE. Sosa | ||
| 46′ | B. AlemanP. Nongoy | ||
| 60′ | Agustin De la CuestaF. Suarez | ||
| 60′ | R. GadeaN. Sosa | ||
| 66′ | Leonardo PaisA. Severo | ||
| 67′ | J. Bosca | ||
| 68′ | A. CambonE. Rodriguez | ||
| 73′ | J. BoscaS. Gallo | ||
| 77′ | Leonardo Pais | ||
| 80′ | E. BentancorM. Unyicio | ||
| 80′ | S. Da SilvaT. Habib | ||
| 83′ | D. Suarez | ||
| 84′ | A. Vazquez |
Cerro
20%
Draw
31%
Racing Montevideo
49%
Cerro vs Racing Montevideo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cerro vs Racing Montevideo
| Probability | Cerro | Draw | Racing Montevideo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.7% | 35.5% | 44.7% |
| Market | 20.4% | 29.8% | 49.8% |
| Final | 20.2% | 31.3% | 48.5% |
| Edge | -0.6% | +5.7% | -5.1% |
Why Racing Montevideo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.06 vs 0.61.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
80%
2+ goals
51%
3+ goals
23%
No goals
20%
Cerro and Racing Montevideo expected goals
Cerro
0.61
Racing Montevideo
1.06
Total expected goals: 1.67
Cerro and Racing Montevideo attack and defence ratings
Cerro
Attack
0.80 -20%
Defence
1.25 +25%
Racing Montevideo
Attack
0.80 -20%
Defence
0.59 -41%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Cerro vs Racing Montevideo: result vs prediction
Cerro 1 – 0 Racing Montevideo
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Clausura - 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cerro vs Racing Montevideo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Racing Montevideo | 48.5% | 2.06 | -5.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 68.9% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.8% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cerro | 20.2% |
| Draw | 31.3% | |
| Racing Montevideo | 48.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 23.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 76.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31.1% |
| No | 68.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Racing Montevideo win | 18.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.9% | |
| Loss | 55.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 20.0% |
| 0-1 | 18.7% | |
| 1-1 | 13.4% |
Cerro vs Racing Montevideo stats
Cerro and Racing Montevideo recent form
| Cerro |
DLWWLW |
| Racing Montevideo |
WDWDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cerro and Racing Montevideo going into this match
Cerro record
- They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 26 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Racing Montevideo record
- They have won 13 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cerro vs Racing Montevideo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Cerro wins
2Draws
4Racing Montevideo wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Cerro | Racing Montevideo | Uruguay Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Racing Montevideo | Cerro | Uruguay Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2026-01-15 | Racing Montevideo | Cerro | Copa De La Liga Auf | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-10 | Cerro | Racing Montevideo | Primera División - Clausura | 1-2 |
| 2025-02-08 | Racing Montevideo | Cerro | Uruguay Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2024-10-20 | Cerro | Racing Montevideo | Primera División - Clausura | 1-1 |
| 2024-04-19 | Racing Montevideo | Cerro | Primera División - Apertura | 1-1 |
| 2023-12-07 | Racing Montevideo | Cerro | Primera División - Clausura | 0-1 |
| 2023-06-25 | Cerro | Racing Montevideo | Primera División - Apertura | 1-2 |
| 2023-05-15 | Cerro | Racing Montevideo | Primera División - Apertura | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cerro vs Racing Montevideo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 20.8%, draw 30.2%, away 49.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.80 | 3.10 | 1.98 |
| 1xBet | 4.60 | 3.04 | 1.81 |
| Bet365 | 4.33 | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| BetVictor | 4.40 | 3.10 | 1.83 |
| Betano | 4.25 | 3.00 | 1.87 |
| Betfair | 3.80 | 3.00 | 1.91 |
| Dafabet | 4.40 | 3.20 | 1.97 |
| Marathonbet | 4.50 | 3.04 | 1.79 |
| Pinnacle | 4.79 | 3.28 | 1.86 |
| SBO | 3.46 | 2.77 | 1.93 |
| Superbet | 4.10 | 3.05 | 1.92 |
| Unibet | 4.50 | 3.20 | 1.86 |
| William Hill | 4.40 | 3.00 | 1.91 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
4.45 ▲ +0.51
X
3.04 ▼ -0.06
2
1.82 ▼ -0.13
9 snapshots recorded, from .