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Uruguay Primera División · Full time ·Clausura - 5

Atletico Torque vs Cerro Largo

2 – 1 Full time

26′Gonzalo Montes
35′Facundo Silvera
38′Esteban Obregón
41′S. Marcel
46′G. MontesD. Guzman
46′F. PizzichilloN. Da Silva
50′Eduardo Agüero
50′Alexis Piegas
54′Sebastián Assis
67′D. DaguerreN. Ramos
69′Alexis Segovia
70′K. SilvaS. Zampieri
70′F. SilveraE. Busquets
73′Alexis Segovia
73′Alexis Segovia
78′L. AndradeR. Lecchini
84′M. GarciaB. Lozano
84′N. Da Silva
88′E. Obregon
90′S. FrancaE. Jourdan
90′S. AssisL. Piriz

Estadio Centenario, MontevideoReferee: A. Olmos

Atletico Torque 59%
Draw 25%
Cerro Largo 17%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Atletico Torque vs Cerro Largo overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Torque vs Cerro Largo

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAtletico TorqueDrawCerro Largo
Model60.3%24.3%15.4%
Market58.2%24.7%17.1%
Final58.7%24.6%16.7%
Edge+2.1%-0.4%-1.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Atletico Torque

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 0.84.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Atletico Torque below the model: +2.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Atletico Torqu ↓ / Cerro Largo → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 12% 12% 2 12% 10% 3 7% 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 50%
No goals 8%

Atletico Torque and Cerro Largo expected goals

Atletico Torque 1.85
Cerro Largo 0.84

Total expected goals: 2.69

Atletico Torque and Cerro Largo attack and defence ratings

Atletico Torque

Attack 1.64 +64%
Defence 0.93 -7%

Cerro Largo

Attack 0.85 -15%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atletico Torque vs Cerro Largo: result vs prediction

Atletico Torque 2 – 1 Cerro Largo

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 5 fixtures

Uruguay Primera División

Before and after this match

Atletico Torque vs Cerro Largo markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Atletico Torque 58.7% 1.70 +2.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 50.3% 1.99 — —
Both teams to score No 51.2% 1.95 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 83.3% 1.20 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 39.7% 2.52 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Atletico Torque58.7%
Draw24.6%
Cerro Largo16.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550.3%
Under 2.549.7%
Both teams to scoreYes48.8%
No51.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)83.3%
12 (either side)75.4%
X2 (draw or away)41.3%
Handicap -1Atletico Torque win36.1%
Push (exactly one goal)24.2%
Loss39.7%
Correct score (top 3)2-011.6%
1-111.6%
1-011.5%

Atletico Torque vs Cerro Largo stats

Atletico Torque and Cerro Largo recent form

newest first
Atletico Torque WWWWWL
Cerro Largo DDDDLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Atletico Torque and Cerro Largo going into this match

league record before kick-off

Atletico Torque record

  • They have won 13 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Cerro Largo record

  • They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.

Atletico Torque vs Cerro Largo head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Atletico Torque wins 3Draws 2Cerro Largo wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-09Cerro LargoAtletico TorqueUruguay Primera División0-1
2026-01-14Atletico TorqueCerro LargoCopa De La Liga Auf2-3
2025-09-20Atletico TorqueCerro LargoPrimera División - Clausura1-0
2025-03-25Cerro LargoAtletico TorqueUruguay Primera División1-1
2023-11-04Cerro LargoAtletico TorquePrimera División - Clausura1-2
2023-03-27Atletico TorqueCerro LargoPrimera División - Apertura1-2
2022-07-31Cerro LargoAtletico TorquePrimera División - Clausura1-2
2022-02-05Atletico TorqueCerro LargoPrimera División - Apertura1-1
2021-11-29Cerro LargoAtletico TorquePrimera División - Clausura1-1
2021-08-15Atletico TorqueCerro LargoPrimera División - Apertura3-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Atletico Torque vs Cerro Largo odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 58.2%, draw 24.7%, away 17.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.65 3.55 5.00
1xBet 1.59 3.54 5.33
Bet365 1.44 3.70 6.50
BetVictor 1.60 3.60 5.25
Betano 1.50 3.75 6.10
Betfair 1.50 3.75 6.00
Dafabet 1.52 4.20 6.60
Marathonbet 1.42 3.90 6.65
Pinnacle 1.49 4.21 7.03
SBO 1.58 3.28 4.40
Superbet 1.66 3.55 4.80
Unibet 1.57 3.75 5.00
William Hill 1.65 3.40 5.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.57 ▼ -0.18
X 3.70 ▲ +0.25
2 5.33 ▲ +0.93

9 snapshots recorded, from .