Uruguay Primera División
·
Full time
·Clausura - 6
Progreso
vs
Cerro
1 – 3 Full time
| 7′ | A. Cambon | ||
| 14′ | A. Cambon | ||
| 34′ | A. Ocampo | ||
| 37′ | A. Macelli | ||
| 46′ | A. OcampoG. Trasante | ||
| 46′ | E. AlvarezM. Juambeltz | ||
| 50′ | R. Cristobal | ||
| 57′ | B. AlemanA. Miranda | ||
| 57′ | A. SeveroF. Bregante | ||
| 62′ | R. CristobalS. Bruschi | ||
| 62′ | F. De LeonN. Acosta | ||
| 63′ | A. CambonE. Rodriguez | ||
| 69′ | D. Suarez | ||
| 73′ | M. Juambeltz | ||
| 78′ | Leonardo PaisP. Nongoy | ||
| 79′ | F. Bregante | ||
| 79′ | A. CougoG. Silva | ||
| 88′ | J. Amaro |
Progreso
39%
Draw
32%
Cerro
30%
Progreso vs Cerro overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Progreso vs Cerro
| Probability | Progreso | Draw | Cerro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.8% | 35.9% | 28.3% |
| Market | 39.4% | 30.5% | 30.0% |
| Final | 38.5% | 31.9% | 29.6% |
| Edge | -3.7% | +5.4% | -1.7% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
81%
2+ goals
54%
3+ goals
26%
No goals
19%
Progreso and Cerro expected goals
Progreso
0.95
Cerro
0.81
Total expected goals: 1.76
Progreso and Cerro attack and defence ratings
Progreso
Attack
0.64 -36%
Defence
0.95 -5%
Cerro
Attack
0.81 -19%
Defence
1.14 +14%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Progreso vs Cerro: result vs prediction
Progreso 1 – 3 Cerro
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Clausura - 6 fixtures
- Racing Montevideo v Boston River — match page
- Wanderers vs Club Nacional
- Cerro Largo vs Central Espanol — team news & stats
- Juventud v Danubio — match page
- Defensor Sporting v Deportivo Maldonado — match page
- Penarol vs Albion FC — team news & stats
- Atletico Torque vs Liverpool Montevideo — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Progreso vs Cerro markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Progreso | 38.5% | 2.60 | -3.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.7% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Progreso | 38.5% |
| Draw | 31.9% | |
| Cerro | 29.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 25.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 74.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.3% |
| No | 64.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Progreso win | 13.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 64.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 18.6% |
| 1-0 | 15.0% | |
| 1-1 | 14.6% |
Progreso vs Cerro stats
Progreso and Cerro recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Progreso and Cerro going into this match
Progreso record
- They have won 6 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cerro record
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 27 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Progreso vs Cerro head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
5Progreso wins
3Draws
2Cerro wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Cerro | Progreso | Uruguay Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Progreso | Cerro | Primera División - Clausura | 2-0 |
| 2025-04-06 | Cerro | Progreso | Uruguay Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2024-09-14 | Progreso | Cerro | Primera División - Clausura | 0-1 |
| 2024-03-01 | Cerro | Progreso | Primera División - Apertura | 2-3 |
| 2022-09-10 | Cerro | Progreso | Segunda División | 1-1 |
| 2022-06-18 | Progreso | Cerro | Segunda División | 0-0 |
| 2022-03-25 | Progreso | Cerro | Segunda División | 2-1 |
| 2021-02-07 | Cerro | Progreso | Primera División - Clausura | 2-0 |
| 2020-08-16 | Progreso | Cerro | Primera División - Apertura | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Progreso vs Cerro odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.4%, draw 30.5%, away 30.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.36 | 2.98 | 3.00 |
| 1xBet | 2.28 | 2.97 | 3.08 |
| 888Sport | 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 2.90 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.13 |
| Betano | 2.37 | 2.95 | 2.95 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.00 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.43 | 3.10 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 2.26 | 2.97 | 3.02 |
| Pinnacle | 2.36 | 3.16 | 3.25 |
| SBO | 2.20 | 2.78 | 2.81 |
| Unibet | 2.60 | 2.88 | 2.65 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 2.90 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.30 ▼ -0.28
X
2.97 ▲ +0.08
2
3.02 ▲ +0.35
13 snapshots recorded, from .