Cerro
vs
Penarol
1 – 2 Full time
| 14′ | M. Arezo | ||
| 26′ | E. Rodriguez | ||
| 46′ | M. LemosF. Romero | ||
| 63′ | N. FernandezA. Hernandez | ||
| 63′ | T. N. Espinosa DovatLucas Hernandez | ||
| 65′ | E. Rodriguez | ||
| 67′ | Leonardo PaisM. Villar | ||
| 67′ | B. AlemanA. Miranda | ||
| 77′ | C. Jaime | ||
| 79′ | N. Arena | ||
| 80′ | E. SosaB. Morales | ||
| 80′ | N. ArenaA. Severo | ||
| 80′ | J. CabreraI. Alegre | ||
| 80′ | C. JaimeT. Olase | ||
| 87′ | A. Hernandez | ||
| 90′ | C. Barros |
Cerro vs Penarol overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cerro vs Penarol
| Probability | Cerro | Draw | Penarol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15.6% | 25.5% | 58.9% |
| Market | 14.1% | 24.5% | 61.4% |
| Final | 14.5% | 24.8% | 60.8% |
| Edge | +1.5% | +0.9% | -2.4% |
Why Penarol
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 0.79.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cerro and Penarol expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.53
Cerro and Penarol attack and defence ratings
Cerro
Penarol
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Cerro vs Penarol: result vs prediction
Cerro 1 – 2 Penarol
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Clausura - 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cerro vs Penarol markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penarol | 60.8% | 1.65 | -2.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 85.5% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.0% | 2.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cerro | 14.5% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| Penarol | 60.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.2% |
| No | 53.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 39.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 85.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Penarol win | 34.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.7% | |
| Loss | 41.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 12.7% |
| 0-2 | 12.1% | |
| 1-1 | 12.0% |
Cerro vs Penarol stats
Cerro and Penarol recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cerro and Penarol going into this match
Cerro record
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 28 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Penarol record
- They have won 17 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cerro vs Penarol head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | Cerro | Penarol | Uruguay Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Penarol | Cerro | Uruguay Primera División | 3-1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Cerro | Penarol | Primera División - Clausura | 2-0 |
| 2025-06-28 | Penarol | Cerro | Uruguay Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2025-04-27 | Penarol | Cerro | Uruguay Primera División | 3-1 |
| 2024-09-22 | Cerro | Penarol | Primera División - Clausura | 0-5 |
| 2024-03-09 | Penarol | Cerro | Primera División - Apertura | 3-0 |
| 2023-08-19 | Cerro | Penarol | Primera División - Clausura | 1-1 |
| 2023-02-04 | Penarol | Cerro | Primera División - Apertura | 2-0 |
| 2021-01-16 | Cerro | Penarol | Primera División - Clausura | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cerro vs Penarol odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 14.2%, draw 24.5%, away 61.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 7.06 | 3.70 | 1.44 |
| Bet365 | 6.25 | 3.60 | 1.50 |
| BetVictor | 6.50 | 3.80 | 1.50 |
| Betano | 5.60 | 3.65 | 1.55 |
| Betfair | 6.50 | 3.80 | 1.44 |
| Marathonbet | 6.55 | 3.68 | 1.44 |
| Pinnacle | 6.85 | 4.09 | 1.51 |
| William Hill | 6.50 | 3.80 | 1.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .