Boston River
vs
Cerro
1 – 1 Full time
Boston River vs Cerro overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Boston River vs Cerro
| Probability | Boston River | Draw | Cerro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.6% | 27.5% | 21.9% |
| Market | 47.9% | 29.4% | 22.8% |
| Final | 48.6% | 28.9% | 22.5% |
| Edge | +2.7% | -1.9% | -0.9% |
Why Boston River
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 0.97.
- The market prices Boston River below the model: +2.7 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Boston River and Cerro expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.57
Boston River and Cerro attack and defence ratings
Boston River
Cerro
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Boston River vs Cerro: result vs prediction
Boston River 1 – 1 Cerro
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Clausura - 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Boston River vs Cerro markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Boston River | 48.6% | 2.06 | +2.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.8% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.5% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.1% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Boston River | 48.6% |
| Draw | 28.9% | |
| Cerro | 22.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% |
| No | 49.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Boston River win | 27.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.4% | |
| Loss | 49.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 1-0 | 11.1% | |
| 2-0 | 9.8% |
Boston River vs Cerro stats
Boston River and Cerro recent form
| Boston River |
WDWLLD |
| Cerro |
LWWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Boston River and Cerro going into this match
Boston River record
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 26 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cerro record
- They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 26 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Boston River vs Cerro head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Boston River | Cerro | Uruguay Primera División | 4-1 |
| 2026-02-27 | Cerro | Boston River | Uruguay Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Cerro | Boston River | Primera División - Clausura | 0-0 |
| 2025-05-19 | Boston River | Cerro | Uruguay Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2024-11-18 | Cerro | Boston River | Primera División - Clausura | 0-0 |
| 2024-07-06 | Boston River | Cerro | Primera División - Apertura | 2-0 |
| 2024-05-19 | Boston River | Cerro | Primera División - Apertura | 2-0 |
| 2023-08-27 | Cerro | Boston River | Primera División - Clausura | 1-2 |
| 2023-02-12 | Boston River | Cerro | Primera División - Apertura | 0-3 |
| 2021-03-06 | Boston River | Cerro | Primera División - Clausura | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Boston River vs Cerro odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.9%, draw 29.4%, away 22.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.88 | 3.15 | 4.10 |
| 1xBet | 1.89 | 3.08 | 4.07 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.00 | 4.10 |
| BetVictor | 1.90 | 3.13 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.05 | 3.85 |
| Betfair | 1.90 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.99 | 3.25 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.87 | 3.08 | 3.98 |
| Pinnacle | 1.93 | 3.25 | 4.21 |
| SBO | 1.90 | 2.82 | 3.46 |
| Superbet | 1.95 | 3.10 | 3.90 |
| Unibet | 1.90 | 3.10 | 3.85 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.00 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .