Garuda Lions
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Uruguay Primera División · Full time ·Clausura - 3

Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting

1 – 1 Full time

Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla, MeloReferee: G. Tejera

Cerro Largo 36%
Draw 31%
Defensor Sporting 32%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCerro LargoDrawDefensor Sporting
Model51.4%30.9%17.7%
Market31.5%31.3%37.3%
Final36.5%31.2%32.4%
Edge+20.0%-0.4%-19.6%

Confidence: Low

Why Cerro Largo

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.33 vs 0.67.
  • The market prices Cerro Largo below the model: +20.0 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Cerro Largo ↓ / Defensor Sport → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 15% 1 17% 13% 2 12% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 85%
2+ goals 61%
3+ goals 33%
No goals 15%

Cerro Largo and Defensor Sporting expected goals

Cerro Largo 1.33
Defensor Sporting 0.67

Total expected goals: 2.01

Cerro Largo and Defensor Sporting attack and defence ratings

Cerro Largo

Attack 0.86 -14%
Defence 0.88 -12%

Defensor Sporting

Attack 0.72 -28%
Defence 1.20 +20%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting: result vs prediction

Cerro Largo 1 – 1 Defensor Sporting

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Clausura - 3 fixtures

Uruguay Primera División

Before and after this match

Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Cerro Largo 36.5% 2.74 +20.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 67.4% 1.48 — —
Both teams to score No 62.6% 1.60 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 68.8% 1.45 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 48.6% 2.06 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Cerro Largo36.5%
Draw31.2%
Defensor Sporting32.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.532.6%
Under 2.567.4%
Both teams to scoreYes37.4%
No62.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)67.6%
12 (either side)68.8%
X2 (draw or away)63.5%
Handicap -1Cerro Largo win25.4%
Push (exactly one goal)26.0%
Loss48.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-016.7%
0-014.6%
1-113.3%

Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting stats

Cerro Largo and Defensor Sporting recent form

newest first
Cerro Largo DDLWDD
Defensor Sporting LLWLDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Cerro Largo and Defensor Sporting going into this match

league record before kick-off

Cerro Largo record

  • They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.

Defensor Sporting record

  • They have won 6 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.

Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting head-to-head

Last 4 meetings

0Cerro Largo wins 2Draws 2Defensor Sporting wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-13Cerro LargoDefensor SportingUruguay Primera División1-1
2026-02-21Defensor SportingCerro LargoUruguay Primera División1-0
2025-05-24Defensor SportingCerro LargoUruguay Primera División3-2
2025-03-23Defensor SportingCerro LargoUruguay Primera División0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 31.6%, draw 31.1%, away 37.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.78 3.00 2.52
1xBet 2.94 2.89 2.42
888Sport 2.90 2.90 2.45
Bet365 2.88 2.90 2.30
BetVictor 3.00 3.00 2.40
Betano 2.87 2.92 2.45
Betfair 2.80 3.00 2.40
Dafabet 3.00 3.10 2.55
Marathonbet 2.88 2.89 2.40
Pinnacle 3.14 3.03 2.51
SBO 2.68 2.80 2.38
Superbet 2.90 2.95 2.45
Unibet 2.63 3.00 2.55
William Hill 2.90 2.90 2.45

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.90 ▲ +0.01
X 2.92 —
2 2.45 —

2 snapshots recorded, from .