Central Espanol
vs
Club Nacional
Garuda Lions Prediction: Club Nacional
0 – 1 Predicted score · 16% model probability
Central Espanol vs Club Nacional overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Central Espanol vs Club Nacional
| Probability | Central Espanol | Draw | Club Nacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13.1% | 26.2% | 60.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 13.1% | 26.2% | 60.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Club Nacional
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 0.64.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Central Espanol vs Club Nacional match preview
Central Espanol faces Club Nacional in the upcoming Uruguay Primera División match, with kickoff scheduled for October 11, 2026. The model indicates a 16% probability of a Central Espanol victory, a 28% chance of a draw, and a 56% likelihood that Club Nacional will win. The expected goals for Central Espanol stand at 0.73, while Club Nacional is projected to score 1.55. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with a 15% probability.
In terms of recent form, Central Espanol has struggled, recording three losses, two draws, and only one win in their last six matches. Conversely, Club Nacional has shown strong performance with four wins and two draws in the same period. The probability of over 2.5 goals is at 40%, and both teams to score is estimated at 42%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Central Espanol and Club Nacional expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.28
Central Espanol and Club Nacional attack and defence ratings
Central Espanol
Club Nacional
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Central Espanol vs Club Nacional markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club Nacional | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 86.9% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.3% | 2.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Central Espanol | 13.1% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Club Nacional | 60.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.1% |
| No | 60.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 39.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 86.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Club Nacional win | 34.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.2% | |
| Loss | 39.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 15.7% |
| 0-2 | 13.8% | |
| 1-1 | 11.8% |
Central Espanol vs Club Nacional stats
Central Espanol and Club Nacional recent form
| Central Espanol |
LLLDDL |
| Club Nacional |
WWWDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Central Espanol and Club Nacional season so far
Central Espanol record
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Club Nacional record
- They have won 15 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Central Espanol vs Club Nacional head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Club Nacional | Central Espanol | Uruguay Primera División | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.