Uruguay Primera División
·
Full time
·Clausura - 10
Central Espanol
vs
Club Nacional
0 – 1 Full time
| 3′ | Mariano Aguilera | ||
| 22′ | tiziano correa | ||
| 30′ | Emiliano·Marquez FernandezFederico Pintado Núñez | ||
| 70′ | Marcos MontielFranco Munoz | ||
| 70′ | raul tarragonaJ. Dellarossa | ||
| 73′ | luciano gonzalezRuben Botta | ||
| 77′ | Mariano Aguilerafacundo sosa | ||
| 77′ | Fernando CamardaFrancisco Montoro | ||
| 79′ | tiziano correaTomás Verón Lupi | ||
| 87′ | Maximiliano GómezMaximiliano Joaquin·Silvera Cabo | ||
| 87′ | Gaston MartirenaEmiliano Ancheta | ||
| 88′ | J. Dellarossa | ||
| 90′ | Sebastián Coates | ||
| 90′ | Ruben Botta |
Central Espanol
16%
Draw
24%
Club Nacional
60%
Match stats
| 7 | Shots | 11 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 49 | Possession % | 51 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
Central Espanol vs Club Nacional overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Central Espanol vs Club Nacional
| Probability | Central Espanol | Draw | Club Nacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13.0% | 26.2% | 60.8% |
| Market | 16.8% | 23.9% | 59.3% |
| Final | 15.9% | 24.5% | 59.7% |
| Edge | -0.9% | +0.6% | +0.4% |
Why Club Nacional
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.64.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
89%
2+ goals
68%
3+ goals
40%
No goals
11%
Central Espanol and Club Nacional expected goals
Central Espanol
0.64
Club Nacional
1.65
Total expected goals: 2.28
Central Espanol and Club Nacional attack and defence ratings
Central Espanol
Attack
0.55 -45%
Defence
1.27 +27%
Club Nacional
Attack
1.21 +21%
Defence
0.88 -12%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Central Espanol vs Club Nacional: result vs prediction
Central Espanol 0 – 1 Club Nacional
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Clausura - 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Central Espanol vs Club Nacional markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club Nacional | 59.7% | 1.68 | +0.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 84.1% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.1% | 2.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Central Espanol | 15.9% |
| Draw | 24.5% | |
| Club Nacional | 59.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.0% |
| No | 61.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 40.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 84.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Club Nacional win | 34.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.2% | |
| Loss | 39.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 15.7% |
| 0-2 | 13.8% | |
| 1-1 | 11.8% |
Central Espanol vs Club Nacional stats
Central Espanol and Club Nacional recent form
| Central Espanol |
LLLDDL |
| Club Nacional |
WWWDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Central Espanol and Club Nacional going into this match
Central Espanol record
- They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Club Nacional record
- They have won 16 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Central Espanol vs Club Nacional head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
1Central Espanol wins
0Draws
2Club Nacional wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Club Nacional | Central Espanol | Uruguay Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2013-03-10 | Club Nacional | Central Espanol | Primera División - Clausura | 2-1 |
| 2012-09-14 | Central Espanol | Club Nacional | Primera División - Apertura | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Central Espanol vs Club Nacional odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 16.8%, draw 23.9%, away 59.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.51 | 3.70 | 1.53 |
| Bet365 | 5.25 | 3.80 | 1.53 |
| BetVictor | 5.50 | 3.80 | 1.53 |
| Betano | 4.90 | 3.75 | 1.60 |
| Betfair | 5.00 | 3.80 | 1.53 |
| Dafabet | 5.40 | 4.10 | 1.61 |
| Marathonbet | 5.40 | 3.70 | 1.51 |
| Pinnacle | 5.74 | 3.92 | 1.61 |
| William Hill | 5.00 | 3.70 | 1.57 |