Club Nacional
vs
Deportivo Maldonado
Garuda Lions Prediction: Deportivo Maldonado
0 – 1 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Club Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Club Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado
| Probability | Club Nacional | Draw | Deportivo Maldonado |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.8% | 34.1% | 35.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 30.8% | 34.1% | 35.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Club Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado match preview
Club Nacional faces Deportivo Maldonado in the upcoming Uruguay Primera División match, with our model assigning a 31% probability of a home win for Club Nacional, while Deportivo Maldonado has a slightly higher chance at 35%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 in favor of Deportivo Maldonado, which aligns with the expected goals of 0.93 for Club Nacional and 1.01 for Deportivo Maldonado.
Recent form indicates that Club Nacional has been strong, with four wins and two draws in their last six matches, while Deportivo Maldonado has recorded three wins, two draws, and one loss. In their last two head-to-head encounters, Deportivo Maldonado has emerged victorious on both occasions, suggesting a competitive matchup ahead. The probability of both teams scoring stands at 40%, and there is a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Club Nacional and Deportivo Maldonado expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.94
Club Nacional and Deportivo Maldonado attack and defence ratings
Club Nacional
Deportivo Maldonado
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Club Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 35.1% | 2.85 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 69.3% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 69.2% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.9% | 1.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club Nacional | 30.8% |
| Draw | 34.1% | |
| Deportivo Maldonado | 35.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 69.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.9% |
| No | 60.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 65.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Maldonado win | 14.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 64.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.7% |
| 1-1 | 14.8% | |
| 0-1 | 13.2% |
Club Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado stats
Club Nacional and Deportivo Maldonado recent form
| Club Nacional |
WWWWDD |
| Deportivo Maldonado |
DWWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Club Nacional and Deportivo Maldonado season so far
Club Nacional record
- They have won 16 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Maldonado record
- They have won 17 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Club Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Deportivo Maldonado | Club Nacional | Uruguay Primera División | 3-0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Deportivo Maldonado | Club Nacional | Uruguay Primera División | 4-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.