Deportivo Maldonado
vs
Danubio
Garuda Lions Prediction: Deportivo Maldonado
1 – 0 Predicted score · 19% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.35 vs 0.55.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Deportivo Maldonado is the favourite, not a value bet.
Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio
| Probability | Deportivo Maldonado | Draw | Danubio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.7% | 30.4% | 13.9% |
| Market | 48.5% | 27.9% | 23.5% |
| Final | 50.3% | 28.6% | 21.1% |
| Edge | +1.8% | +0.6% | -2.4% |
Why Deportivo Maldonado
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.35 vs 0.55.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.8% per unit staked (our 50.3% × 1.95 − 1).
Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio match preview
Deportivo Maldonado hosts Danubio in the upcoming match, with a probability of 51% for a home victory, while a draw stands at 28% and an away win for Danubio at 21%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with a 19% chance of occurring. Deportivo Maldonado is expected to score 1.35 goals, whereas Danubio is forecasted to net 0.55 goals.
In terms of recent form, Deportivo Maldonado has recorded a mixed bag of results with one win in their last six matches, while Danubio has achieved two wins in the same timeframe. The head-to-head record shows Deportivo Maldonado winning once and drawing once in their last two encounters, with Danubio yet to secure a victory against them.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Deportivo Maldonado and Danubio expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.90
Deportivo Maldonado and Danubio attack and defence ratings
Deportivo Maldonado
Danubio
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 50.3% | 1.99 | +1.8% | 1.95 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 70.3% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 67.7% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.9% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.3% | 2.26 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 50.3% |
| Draw | 28.6% | |
| Danubio | 21.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 70.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32.3% |
| No | 67.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Maldonado win | 28.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.6% | |
| Loss | 44.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 19.1% |
| 0-0 | 16.0% | |
| 2-0 | 13.7% |
Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio stats
Deportivo Maldonado and Danubio recent form
| Deportivo Maldonado |
LDWWWL |
| Danubio |
WLWLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Deportivo Maldonado and Danubio season so far
Deportivo Maldonado record
- They have won 17 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Danubio record
- They have won 5 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 32 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | Deportivo Maldonado | Danubio | Uruguay Primera División | 3-1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Danubio | Deportivo Maldonado | Uruguay Primera División | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Deportivo Maldonado vs Danubio odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.5%, draw 27.9%, away 23.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.87 | 3.24 | 3.82 |
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.20 | 3.90 |
| BetVictor | 1.87 | 3.30 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.90 | 3.25 | 3.75 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.30 | 3.80 |
| Dafabet | 1.95 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.85 | 3.24 | 3.72 |
| Pinnacle | 1.90 | 3.46 | 4.01 |
| SBO | 1.88 | 2.97 | 3.33 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.25 | 3.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .