Cerro Largo
vs
Boston River
Garuda Lions Prediction: Boston River
0 – 1 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.09 vs 0.78.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Boston River is the favourite, not a value bet.
Cerro Largo vs Boston River overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cerro Largo vs Boston River
| Probability | Cerro Largo | Draw | Boston River |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.4% | 34.2% | 41.4% |
| Market | 34.5% | 30.1% | 35.4% |
| Final | 31.9% | 31.2% | 36.9% |
| Edge | -2.5% | +1.0% | +1.5% |
Why Boston River
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.09 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.71, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.0% per unit staked (our 36.9% × 2.71 − 1).
Cerro Largo vs Boston River match preview
Cerro Largo and Boston River are set to clash in the Uruguay Primera División, with both teams showing varying recent form. Cerro Largo has recorded a draw and four losses in their last six matches, while Boston River has secured two wins, a draw, and three losses in the same timeframe. The expected goals indicate that Cerro Largo is projected to score 0.78, whereas Boston River is expected to net 1.09 goals.
In their last three encounters, Cerro Largo has won once, while Boston River has emerged victorious twice, suggesting a competitive rivalry. The probabilities from our model indicate a close match-up, with Cerro Largo at 32%, a draw at 32%, and Boston River slightly favored at 36%. The most likely scoreline is a 0-1 victory for Boston River, with both teams having a 37% chance of scoring.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cerro Largo and Boston River expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.87
Cerro Largo and Boston River attack and defence ratings
Cerro Largo
Boston River
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cerro Largo vs Boston River markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Boston River | 36.9% | 2.71 | +1.5% | 2.71 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cerro Largo | 31.9% |
| Draw | 31.2% | |
| Boston River | 36.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 71.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.1% |
| No | 62.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Boston River win | 17.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.8% | |
| Loss | 58.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 16.8% |
| 0-1 | 15.6% | |
| 1-1 | 14.4% |
Cerro Largo vs Boston River stats
Cerro Largo and Boston River recent form
| Cerro Largo |
DLLLLD |
| Boston River |
WWDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cerro Largo and Boston River season so far
Cerro Largo record
- They have won 8 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 32 matches.
Boston River record
- They have won 9 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 32 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cerro Largo vs Boston River head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Cerro Largo | Boston River | Uruguay Primera División | 3-0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Boston River | Cerro Largo | Uruguay Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-13 | Boston River | Cerro Largo | Uruguay Primera División | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cerro Largo vs Boston River odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.5%, draw 30.1%, away 35.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.61 | 2.93 | 2.54 |
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.10 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.62 | 3.00 | 2.57 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.00 | 2.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.80 | 3.20 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.61 | 2.93 | 2.54 |
| Pinnacle | 2.78 | 3.00 | 2.71 |
| SBO | 2.47 | 2.82 | 2.43 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 2.90 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .