Uruguay Primera División
·
Full time
·Clausura - 11
Cerro
vs
Cerro Largo
1 – 1 Full time
| 13′ | rodrigo mederos | ||
| 28′ | Juan Cruz Guasone | ||
| 36′ | Emiliano Rodriguezbruno morales | ||
| 43′ | Nahuel Arena | ||
| 46′ | rodrigo mederosFrancisco Bregante Torres | ||
| 61′ | Cristian BarrosEzequiel Forclaz | ||
| 64′ | Gustavo Vieraandres cordoba | ||
| 64′ | joaquin bruno alvarez hernandezaxel pandiani | ||
| 71′ | Juan Cruz Guasone | ||
| 71′ | Brian Lozano | ||
| 73′ | Leonardo Pais | ||
| 83′ | Leonardo PaisJorge Alejandro Severo Cordero | ||
| 83′ | Alexander Nahuel·Hernandez DominguezDiego Daguerre | ||
| 83′ | Brian LozanoBorys Barone | ||
| 84′ | Ezequiel Forclaz | ||
| 86′ | alexis piegas | ||
| 90′ | andres cordoba |
Cerro
41%
Draw
31%
Cerro Largo
28%
Match stats
| 3 | Shots | 6 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 41 | Possession % | 59 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
Cerro vs Cerro Largo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cerro vs Cerro Largo
| Probability | Cerro | Draw | Cerro Largo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.8% | 30.4% | 17.8% |
| Market | 37.9% | 30.9% | 31.2% |
| Final | 41.4% | 30.8% | 27.9% |
| Edge | +3.5% | -0.1% | -3.3% |
Why Cerro
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.70.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Cerro below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
86%
2+ goals
62%
3+ goals
34%
No goals
14%
Cerro and Cerro Largo expected goals
Cerro
1.37
Cerro Largo
0.70
Total expected goals: 2.07
Cerro and Cerro Largo attack and defence ratings
Cerro
Attack
0.99 -1%
Defence
1.09 +9%
Cerro Largo
Attack
0.60 -40%
Defence
1.07 +7%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Cerro vs Cerro Largo: result vs prediction
Cerro 1 – 1 Cerro Largo
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Clausura - 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cerro vs Cerro Largo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cerro | 41.4% | 2.42 | +3.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.9% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.2% | 2.07 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cerro | 41.4% |
| Draw | 30.8% | |
| Cerro Largo | 27.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.6% |
| No | 61.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cerro win | 25.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.8% | |
| Loss | 48.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.1% |
| 0-0 | 13.9% | |
| 1-1 | 13.3% |
Cerro vs Cerro Largo stats
Cerro and Cerro Largo recent form
| Cerro |
WLDLWW |
| Cerro Largo |
LLLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cerro and Cerro Largo going into this match
Cerro record
- They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 32 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cerro Largo record
- They have won 8 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 32 matches.
Cerro vs Cerro Largo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
2Cerro wins
4Draws
4Cerro Largo wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Cerro Largo | Cerro | Uruguay Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Cerro Largo | Cerro | Uruguay Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-07 | Cerro | Cerro Largo | Primera División - Clausura | 0-1 |
| 2025-06-19 | Cerro | Cerro Largo | Uruguay Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2025-03-17 | Cerro Largo | Cerro | Uruguay Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2024-09-28 | Cerro Largo | Cerro | Primera División - Clausura | 3-1 |
| 2024-07-14 | Cerro | Cerro Largo | Primera División - Apertura | 0-1 |
| 2024-03-24 | Cerro | Cerro Largo | Primera División - Apertura | 1-1 |
| 2023-11-30 | Cerro Largo | Cerro | Primera División - Clausura | 0-0 |
| 2023-07-02 | Cerro Largo | Cerro | Primera División - Apertura | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cerro vs Cerro Largo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.2%, draw 30.3%, away 31.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.40 | 2.92 | 2.89 |
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 2.90 | 2.88 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.00 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.35 | 3.00 | 2.95 |
| Betfair | 2.38 | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.43 | 3.20 | 3.05 |
| Marathonbet | 2.38 | 2.92 | 2.82 |
| Pinnacle | 2.48 | 3.10 | 3.11 |
| SBO | 2.23 | 2.82 | 2.72 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.38 ▼ -0.04
X
2.92 ▼ -0.08
2
2.89 ▼ -0.02
10 snapshots recorded, from .