Cerro
vs
Cerro Largo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cerro
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
Cerro vs Cerro Largo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cerro vs Cerro Largo
| Probability | Cerro | Draw | Cerro Largo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.6% | 34.4% | 25.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 40.6% | 34.4% | 25.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Cerro
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cerro and Cerro Largo expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.86
Cerro and Cerro Largo attack and defence ratings
Cerro
Cerro Largo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
Cerro vs Cerro Largo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cerro | 40.6% | 2.47 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cerro | 40.6% |
| Draw | 34.4% | |
| Cerro Largo | 25.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 71.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.0% |
| No | 63.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 65.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cerro win | 17.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 59.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 16.9% |
| 1-0 | 15.5% | |
| 1-1 | 14.4% |
Cerro vs Cerro Largo stats
Cerro and Cerro Largo recent form
| Cerro |
LDLWWD |
| Cerro Largo |
LLDLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cerro and Cerro Largo season so far
Cerro record
- They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 31 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cerro Largo record
- They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 30 matches.
Cerro vs Cerro Largo head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Cerro Largo | Cerro | Uruguay Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Cerro Largo | Cerro | Uruguay Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2025-06-19 | Cerro | Cerro Largo | Uruguay Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2025-03-17 | Cerro Largo | Cerro | Uruguay Primera División | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.