Danubio
vs
Central Espanol
Garuda Lions Prediction: Danubio
1 – 0 Predicted score · 21% model probability
Danubio vs Central Espanol overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Danubio vs Central Espanol
| Probability | Danubio | Draw | Central Espanol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.6% | 38.5% | 18.9% |
| Market | 46.6% | 28.7% | 24.7% |
| Final | 45.6% | 31.1% | 23.3% |
| Edge | -4.0% | +9.8% | -5.8% |
Why Danubio
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.93 vs 0.53.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.04, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Danubio vs Central Espanol match preview
Danubio faces Central Espanol in the Uruguay Primera División with the match kicking off on October 18, 2026. According to our model, Danubio has a 46% chance of winning, while Central Espanol stands at 23%, and a draw is estimated at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Danubio, with a probability of 21%. Expected goals for Danubio are 0.93, compared to 0.53 for Central Espanol.
In terms of recent form, Danubio has recorded a sequence of L-W-L-D-D-L, while Central Espanol has struggled with L-L-L-L-D-D. The head-to-head record shows that in their last encounter, there were no wins for either team, resulting in 1 draw. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate confidence in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Danubio and Central Espanol expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.46
Danubio and Central Espanol attack and defence ratings
Danubio
Central Espanol
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 11 fixtures
- Cerro v Cerro Largo — match page
- Progreso vs Juventud — team news & stats
- Racing Montevideo vs Wanderers
- Boston River v Defensor Sporting — match page
- Albion FC vs Atletico Torque — team news & stats
- Liverpool Montevideo v Penarol — match page
- Club Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Danubio vs Central Espanol markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Danubio | 45.6% | 2.19 | -4.0% | 2.04 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 82.0% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.7% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Danubio | 45.6% |
| Draw | 31.1% | |
| Central Espanol | 23.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 18.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 82.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 25.9% |
| No | 74.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Danubio win | 16.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.3% | |
| Loss | 57.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 24.5% |
| 1-0 | 20.5% | |
| 1-1 | 12.6% |
Danubio vs Central Espanol stats
Danubio and Central Espanol recent form
| Danubio |
LWLDDL |
| Central Espanol |
LLLLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Danubio and Central Espanol season so far
Danubio record
- They have won 5 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 32 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Central Espanol record
- They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Danubio vs Central Espanol head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Central Espanol | Danubio | Copa Uruguay | 0-6 |
| 2026-04-12 | Central Espanol | Danubio | Uruguay Primera División | 2-2 |
| 2021-09-15 | Danubio | Central Espanol | Segunda División | 1-1 |
| 2021-06-02 | Central Espanol | Danubio | Segunda División | 0-0 |
| 2013-05-04 | Danubio | Central Espanol | Primera División - Clausura | 0-2 |
| 2012-11-10 | Central Espanol | Danubio | Primera División - Apertura | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Danubio vs Central Espanol odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.5%, draw 28.6%, away 24.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.94 | 3.16 | 3.64 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.10 | 3.80 |
| BetVictor | 1.93 | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| Betano | 1.98 | 3.10 | 3.65 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.25 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.04 | 3.30 | 3.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.92 | 3.16 | 3.55 |
| Pinnacle | 2.04 | 3.34 | 3.69 |
| SBO | 1.93 | 2.90 | 3.26 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.10 | 3.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .