Liverpool Montevideo
vs
Penarol
Garuda Lions Prediction: Penarol
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol
| Probability | Liverpool Montevideo | Draw | Penarol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.2% | 31.2% | 37.5% |
| Market | 27.4% | 29.0% | 43.6% |
| Final | 28.4% | 29.6% | 42.1% |
| Edge | +3.8% | +2.2% | -6.1% |
Why Penarol
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol match preview
Liverpool Montevideo faces Penarol in this upcoming Uruguay Primera División match. According to our model, Liverpool Montevideo has a 28% chance of winning, while Penarol is favored with a 42% probability. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at an 11% likelihood, with expected goals of 1.06 for Liverpool Montevideo and 1.20 for Penarol.
In terms of recent form, Liverpool Montevideo has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Penarol has been in strong form with four wins and one draw in their last five games. The head-to-head record shows Liverpool Montevideo winning three of the last four encounters, with Penarol securing one victory. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Liverpool Montevideo and Penarol expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.26
Liverpool Montevideo and Penarol attack and defence ratings
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penarol | 42.1% | 2.38 | -6.1% | 2.18 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Liverpool Montevideo | 28.4% |
| Draw | 29.6% | |
| Penarol | 42.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.0% |
| No | 53.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Penarol win | 16.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 62.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 11.8% | |
| 0-1 | 11.1% |
Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol stats
Liverpool Montevideo and Penarol recent form
| Liverpool Montevideo |
DWWDLW |
| Penarol |
DWDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Liverpool Montevideo and Penarol season so far
Liverpool Montevideo record
- They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Penarol record
- They have won 20 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Penarol | Liverpool Montevideo | Uruguay Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2026-04-13 | Penarol | Liverpool Montevideo | Uruguay Primera División | 0-2 |
| 2025-06-19 | Liverpool Montevideo | Penarol | Uruguay Primera División | 3-2 |
| 2025-03-20 | Penarol | Liverpool Montevideo | Uruguay Primera División | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.6%, draw 29.1%, away 43.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.32 | 3.12 | 2.06 |
| Bet365 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.30 | 3.13 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.30 | 3.05 | 2.12 |
| Betfair | 3.25 | 3.10 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.50 | 3.30 | 2.18 |
| Marathonbet | 3.24 | 3.12 | 2.04 |
| Pinnacle | 3.51 | 3.30 | 2.11 |
| SBO | 3.09 | 2.89 | 2.00 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.10 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .