Defensor Sporting
vs
Racing Montevideo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Defensor Sporting
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo
| Probability | Defensor Sporting | Draw | Racing Montevideo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.0% | 31.2% | 30.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 38.0% | 31.2% | 30.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Defensor Sporting
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo match preview
Defensor Sporting faces Racing Montevideo in an intriguing matchup in the Uruguay Primera División. According to our model, Defensor Sporting has a 38% chance of winning, while both a draw and a victory for Racing Montevideo are estimated at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Defensor Sporting, which has an 11% probability. Expected goals are 1.20 for Defensor Sporting and 1.06 for Racing Montevideo, indicating a closely contested game.
Recent form shows Defensor Sporting with two losses, one win, one loss, and one draw in their last five matches, while Racing Montevideo has struggled with three losses, one draw, and one win. In their last three encounters, Defensor Sporting has won once and drawn twice against Racing Montevideo, who has yet to secure a victory in this head-to-head.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Defensor Sporting and Racing Montevideo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.26
Defensor Sporting and Racing Montevideo attack and defence ratings
Defensor Sporting
Racing Montevideo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Defensor Sporting | 38.0% | 2.63 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.2% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Defensor Sporting | 38.0% |
| Draw | 31.2% | |
| Racing Montevideo | 30.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.0% |
| No | 53.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Defensor Sporting win | 16.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 62.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 11.8% | |
| 1-0 | 11.2% |
Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo stats
Defensor Sporting and Racing Montevideo recent form
| Defensor Sporting |
LLWLWD |
| Racing Montevideo |
LLLDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Defensor Sporting and Racing Montevideo season so far
Defensor Sporting record
- They have won 8 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Racing Montevideo record
- They have won 14 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Racing Montevideo | Defensor Sporting | Uruguay Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Racing Montevideo | Defensor Sporting | Uruguay Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-16 | Defensor Sporting | Racing Montevideo | Uruguay Primera División | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.