Godoy Cruz
vs
Tristan Suarez
Garuda Lions Prediction: Godoy Cruz
1 – 0 Predicted score · 18% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.09 vs 0.66.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Godoy Cruz is the favourite, not a value bet.
Godoy Cruz vs Tristan Suarez overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Godoy Cruz vs Tristan Suarez
| Probability | Godoy Cruz | Draw | Tristan Suarez |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.6% | 34.8% | 20.7% |
| Market | 43.3% | 32.5% | 24.2% |
| Final | 43.6% | 33.1% | 23.3% |
| Edge | +0.3% | +0.6% | -0.9% |
Why Godoy Cruz
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.09 vs 0.66.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.9% per unit staked (our 43.6% × 2.25 − 1).
Godoy Cruz vs Tristan Suarez match preview
Godoy Cruz enters this match with a strong recent form, having won three of their last five games and drawing the other two. Their expected goals stand at 1.09, indicating a solid offensive performance, while their opponents, Tristan Suarez, have a lower expected goals figure of 0.66. Tristan Suarez's recent form includes two draws, a win, and two additional draws, suggesting a more inconsistent performance.
According to our model, Godoy Cruz has a 45% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 35% and Tristan Suarez at 21%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0 in favor of Godoy Cruz, with a 18% likelihood. The probability of over 2.5 goals is 26%, and both teams to score is set at 33%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Godoy Cruz and Tristan Suarez expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.75
Godoy Cruz and Tristan Suarez attack and defence ratings
Godoy Cruz
Tristan Suarez
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
Godoy Cruz vs Tristan Suarez markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Godoy Cruz | 43.6% | 2.29 | +0.3% | 2.25 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 66.7% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.7% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.4% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Godoy Cruz | 43.6% |
| Draw | 33.1% | |
| Tristan Suarez | 23.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 25.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 74.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33.3% |
| No | 66.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Godoy Cruz win | 19.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.4% | |
| Loss | 55.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 18.6% |
| 1-0 | 17.7% | |
| 1-1 | 13.7% |
Godoy Cruz vs Tristan Suarez stats
Godoy Cruz and Tristan Suarez recent form
| Godoy Cruz |
WWWDWD |
| Tristan Suarez |
DDWDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Godoy Cruz and Tristan Suarez season so far
Godoy Cruz record
- They have won 19 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tristan Suarez record
- They have won 16 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 25 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
Godoy Cruz vs Tristan Suarez head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-13 | Godoy Cruz | Tristan Suarez | Copa Argentina | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Godoy Cruz vs Tristan Suarez odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.3%, draw 32.5%, away 24.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.07 | 2.74 | 3.88 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 2.88 | 3.80 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 2.85 | 4.10 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 2.80 | 3.75 |
| Dafabet | 2.16 | 2.90 | 3.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.05 | 2.74 | 3.76 |
| Pinnacle | 2.16 | 2.88 | 3.97 |
| SBO | 2.01 | 2.68 | 3.35 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 2.70 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .