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Canadian Premier League · Full time ·Group Stage

York United vs Pacific FC

3 – 4 Full time

8′Oswaldo Leon
13′Marco Bustos
15′Juan Córdova
28′Luca accettola
35′M. PiepgrassTaras Gomulka
41′Taras Gomulka
44′R. Kratt
45′Ollie Bassett
45′Kembo·Kibato
45′Marco Bustos
45′Luca accettolaRaúl López
45′Frank SturingCarlos Guzman
45′Kembo·KibatoMax Ferrari
58′R. KrattAlejandro Diaz
70′Ollie Bassett
76′Raúl López
78′Marco BustosM. Vales
78′Aidan DanielsMatteo Schiavoni
78′Y. ToualyDylan Demelo
82′Steffen YeatesSebastian Gonzales
83′Sebastian Gonzales
85′Juan David Quintana Echeverry

York Lions Stadium, Toronto

York United 49%
Draw 24%
Pacific FC 27%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 17
4 Shots on target 4
47 Possession % 53
6 Corners 5
14 Fouls 17
1 Offsides 5
0 Saves 1
268 Accurate passes 382

York United vs Pacific FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: York United vs Pacific FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityYork UnitedDrawPacific FC
Model45.6%22.1%32.3%
Market50.6%24.3%25.1%
Final49.3%23.8%26.9%
Edge-5.0%-2.3%+7.2%

Confidence: Low

Why York United

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.80.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

York United ↓ / Pacific FC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 7% 2 4% 8% 7% 4% 3 6% 5% 4+ 5% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 91%
3+ goals 75%
No goals 3%

York United and Pacific FC expected goals

York United 2.14
Pacific FC 1.80

Total expected goals: 3.95

York United and Pacific FC attack and defence ratings

York United

Attack 1.12 +12%
Defence 1.54 +54%

Pacific FC

Attack 0.89 -11%
Defence 1.13 +13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

York United vs Pacific FC: result vs prediction

York United 3 – 4 Pacific FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Before and after this match

York United vs Pacific FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 York United 49.3% 2.03 -5.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 75.4% 1.33 — —
Both teams to score Yes 74.5% 1.34 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.2% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.4% 1.84 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2York United49.3%
Draw23.8%
Pacific FC26.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575.4%
Under 2.524.6%
Both teams to scoreYes74.5%
No25.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)73.1%
12 (either side)76.2%
X2 (draw or away)50.7%
Handicap -1York United win27.0%
Push (exactly one goal)18.6%
Loss54.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-18.2%
2-18.0%
2-27.2%

York United vs Pacific FC stats

York United and Pacific FC recent form

newest first
York United DLWDDL
Pacific FC DLDDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

York United and Pacific FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

York United record

  • They have won 5 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.

Pacific FC record

  • They have won 1 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 22 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

York United vs Pacific FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4York United wins 4Draws 2Pacific FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-09-09York UnitedPacific FCCanadian Premier League3-3
2026-08-08Pacific FCYork UnitedCanadian Premier League1-1
2026-05-17Pacific FCYork UnitedCanadian Premier League0-1
2025-10-09York UnitedPacific FCCanadian Premier League2-2
2025-08-24York UnitedPacific FCCanadian Premier League5-1
2025-06-14Pacific FCYork UnitedCanadian Premier League1-3
2025-05-11Pacific FCYork UnitedCanadian Premier League2-1
2024-10-23York UnitedPacific FCCanadian Premier League2-0
2024-10-11York UnitedPacific FCCanadian Premier League1-2
2024-08-03Pacific FCYork UnitedCanadian Premier League1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

York United vs Pacific FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 50.6%, draw 24.3%, away 25.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.78 3.70 3.60
Bet365 1.80 3.60 3.80
BetVictor 1.83 3.80 3.50
Betano 1.85 3.85 3.70
Betfair 1.80 3.80 3.60
Marathonbet 1.76 3.70 3.52
Pinnacle 1.78 3.96 3.59
SBO 1.71 3.34 3.41
William Hill 1.75 3.50 3.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.78 ▼ -0.16
X 3.70 —
2 3.59 ▲ +0.41

4 snapshots recorded, from .