Canadian Premier League
·
Full time
·Group Stage
York United
vs
Cavalry FC
3 – 1 Full time
| 6′ | Sebastian Gonzales | ||
| 12′ | Steffen Yeates | ||
| 33′ | Raúl López | ||
| 45′ | James McGlincheyHarrison Paton | ||
| 50′ | Steffen Yeates | ||
| 65′ | Nathaniel EdwardsMaël Henry | ||
| 65′ | Owen Graham-RoacheRobert Owen Antoniuk | ||
| 65′ | B. KamdemCurtis Ofori | ||
| 69′ | Steffen Yeates | ||
| 71′ | Harrison Paton | ||
| 73′ | Luke Singh | ||
| 74′ | Daan KlompHassan Ayari | ||
| 77′ | Jorge Ariel Almagro Albán | ||
| 78′ | E. Kobza | ||
| 83′ | Amer Didic | ||
| 86′ | Jorge Ariel Almagro AlbánLuca accettola | ||
| 90′ | Ali Musse | ||
| 90′ | Sebastian GonzalesEduardo Ramos | ||
| 90′ | Steffen YeatesKevonte Tyrique Jaaziah Clarke |
York United
18%
Draw
21%
Cavalry FC
61%
Match stats
| 12 | Shots | 18 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 45 | Possession % | 55 |
| 0 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Saves | 3 |
| 343 | Accurate passes | 417 |
York United vs Cavalry FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: York United vs Cavalry FC
| Probability | York United | Draw | Cavalry FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14.1% | 15.7% | 70.2% |
| Market | 19.9% | 22.4% | 57.7% |
| Final | 18.5% | 20.7% | 60.8% |
| Edge | -5.9% | -6.7% | +12.5% |
Why Cavalry FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.08 vs 1.41.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Cavalry FC below the model: +12.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
98%
2+ goals
94%
3+ goals
82%
No goals
2%
York United and Cavalry FC expected goals
York United
1.41
Cavalry FC
3.08
Total expected goals: 4.49
York United and Cavalry FC attack and defence ratings
York United
Attack
1.20 +20%
Defence
1.60 +60%
Cavalry FC
Attack
1.45 +45%
Defence
0.69 -31%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
York United vs Cavalry FC: result vs prediction
York United 3 – 1 Cavalry FC
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Before and after this match
York United vs Cavalry FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cavalry FC | 60.8% | 1.64 | +12.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82.5% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 81.5% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Cavalry FC win | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | York United | 18.5% |
| Draw | 20.7% | |
| Cavalry FC | 60.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 17.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.6% |
| No | 27.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 39.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 81.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cavalry FC win | 51.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.4% | |
| Loss | 29.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-3 | 7.7% |
| 1-2 | 7.5% | |
| 1-4 | 5.9% |
York United vs Cavalry FC stats
York United and Cavalry FC recent form
| York United |
LDLWDD |
| Cavalry FC |
LWDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
York United and Cavalry FC going into this match
York United record
- They have won 5 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Cavalry FC record
- They have won 16 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
York United vs Cavalry FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
2York United wins
1Draws
7Cavalry FC wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Cavalry FC | York United | Canadian Premier League | 5-0 |
| 2026-06-10 | York United | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League | 1-5 |
| 2026-04-25 | Cavalry FC | York United | Canadian Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-26 | Cavalry FC | York United | Canadian Premier League | 4-1 |
| 2025-09-05 | York United | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2025-07-26 | Cavalry FC | York United | Canadian Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2025-06-08 | Cavalry FC | York United | Canadian Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-03 | York United | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2024-09-21 | York United | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2024-08-17 | York United | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
York United vs Cavalry FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 19.9%, draw 22.4%, away 57.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.68 | 4.66 | 1.61 |
| Bet365 | 4.75 | 3.90 | 1.62 |
| BetVictor | 4.60 | 4.10 | 1.57 |
| Betano | 4.65 | 4.15 | 1.62 |
| Betfair | 4.40 | 4.20 | 1.57 |
| Marathonbet | 4.60 | 3.92 | 1.54 |
| Pinnacle | 4.31 | 4.11 | 1.62 |
| William Hill | 4.20 | 4.00 | 1.55 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
4.60 ▼ -0.65
X
4.11 ▼ -0.17
2
1.59 ▲ +0.09
3 snapshots recorded, from .