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Canadian Premier League · Full time ·Group Stage

Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC

3 – 2 Full time

9′Eryk kobza
43′Diego Gutiérrez
51′Harrison Paton
57′Adam Pearlman
59′Kamron Habibullah
62′Harrison PatonMichael Baldisimo
73′Kamron Habibullah
76′Nicolas Fleuriau ChateauAmaury Escoto
76′Ballou TablaG. Antinoro
77′Nathaniel EdwardsOwen Graham-Roache
80′Goteh Ntignee
81′Goteh Ntignee
85′Ali MusseMaël Henry
85′Bradley kamdemCurtis Ofori
85′Adam PearlmanNikolas myroniuk
88′Diego GutiérrezJuan Castro
90′Tobias Warschewski
90′Michael Baldisimo
90′Tim ArnaudReinaldo Abraham
90′Emiliano·GarcíaJean-Aniel Assi
90′G. Antinoro

TD Place Stadium, Ottawa

Atlético Ottawa 19%
Draw 23%
Cavalry FC 58%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

7 Shots on target 5
63 Possession % 37
7 Corners 5
9 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 1
3 Saves 4
424 Accurate passes 221

Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAtlético OttawaDrawCavalry FC
Model14.5%23.6%61.8%
Market20.3%22.8%56.9%
Final18.9%23.0%58.1%
Edge-5.8%+0.9%+4.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Cavalry FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 0.82.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Cavalry FC below the model: +4.9 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Atlético Ottaw ↓ / Cavalry FC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 11% 12% 8% 1 11% 10% 6% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 51%
No goals 8%

Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC expected goals

Atlético Ottawa 0.82
Cavalry FC 1.90

Total expected goals: 2.72

Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC attack and defence ratings

Atlético Ottawa

Attack 0.91 -9%
Defence 0.97 -3%

Cavalry FC

Attack 1.48 +48%
Defence 0.53 -47%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC: result vs prediction

Atlético Ottawa 3 – 2 Cavalry FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Before and after this match

Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Cavalry FC 58.1% 1.72 +4.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 51.2% 1.95 — —
Both teams to score No 51.3% 1.95 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 81.1% 1.23 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 38.2% 2.62 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Atlético Ottawa18.9%
Draw23.0%
Cavalry FC58.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551.2%
Under 2.548.8%
Both teams to scoreYes48.7%
No51.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)41.9%
12 (either side)77.0%
X2 (draw or away)81.1%
Handicap -1Cavalry FC win37.7%
Push (exactly one goal)24.1%
Loss38.2%
Correct score (top 3)0-211.9%
0-111.5%
1-111.3%

Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC stats

Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC recent form

newest first
Atlético Ottawa WLLDWL
Cavalry FC WDWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Atlético Ottawa record

  • They have won 11 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
  • 51% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Cavalry FC record

  • They have won 16 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 23 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Atlético Ottawa wins 2Draws 4Cavalry FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-22Cavalry FCAtlético OttawaCanadian Premier League3-1
2026-07-04Atlético OttawaCavalry FCCanadian Premier League0-3
2026-04-12Cavalry FCAtlético OttawaCanadian Premier League3-1
2025-11-09Atlético OttawaCavalry FCCanadian Premier League2-1
2025-09-27Atlético OttawaCavalry FCCanadian Premier League3-0
2025-08-23Atlético OttawaCavalry FCCanadian Premier League2-2
2025-06-28Cavalry FCAtlético OttawaCanadian Premier League0-2
2025-04-26Cavalry FCAtlético OttawaCanadian Premier League1-3
2024-09-15Cavalry FCAtlético OttawaCanadian Premier League2-2
2024-08-03Atlético OttawaCavalry FCCanadian Premier League1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 20.3%, draw 22.8%, away 56.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.58 4.53 1.64
Bet365 4.50 4.33 1.55
BetVictor 4.75 4.00 1.57
Betano 4.45 4.25 1.65
Betfair 4.60 4.00 1.57
Marathonbet 4.40 3.82 1.58
Pinnacle 4.32 3.96 1.65
William Hill 4.00 3.90 1.62

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.47 ▲ +0.40
X 4.00 ▲ +0.34
2 1.60 ▼ -0.10

4 snapshots recorded, from .