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Canadian Premier League · Full time ·Group Stage

HFX Wanderers FC vs Atlético Ottawa

0 – 1 Full time

5′Ballou Tabla
23′Emiliano·García
58′Emiliano·GarcíaJean-Aniel Assi
58′Kamron HabibullahG. Antinoro
63′Miguel Arilla GuinotNelson Pierre
66′G. Antinoro
68′S. ZitmanLiam MacKenzie
79′Jefferson AlphonseFrancesco Troisi
79′Lucas OlguinTavio Ciccarelli
81′Sergei Kozlovskiy
81′I. Johnston
86′Diego GutiérrezJuan Castro
86′Tim ArnaudTyr Walker
87′Ballou TablaReinaldo Abraham

Wanderers Grounds, Halifax

HFX Wanderers FC 48%
Draw 24%
Atlético Ottawa 28%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 9
2 Shots on target 3
57 Possession % 43
9 Corners 4
13 Fouls 12
2 Saves 2
505 Accurate passes 359

HFX Wanderers FC vs Atlético Ottawa overview

Garuda Lions analysis: HFX Wanderers FC vs Atlético Ottawa

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityHFX Wanderers FCDrawAtlético Ottawa
Model56.3%21.7%22.0%
Market45.2%24.7%30.1%
Final47.9%24.0%28.1%
Edge+11.1%-3.1%-8.1%

Confidence: Low

Why HFX Wanderers FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.37.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices HFX Wanderers FC below the model: +11.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

HFX Wanderers ↓ / Atlético Ottaw → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 5% 9% 6% 2 7% 9% 6% 3 5% 7% 5% 4+ 5% 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 70%
No goals 4%

HFX Wanderers FC and Atlético Ottawa expected goals

HFX Wanderers FC 2.24
Atlético Ottawa 1.37

Total expected goals: 3.61

HFX Wanderers FC and Atlético Ottawa attack and defence ratings

HFX Wanderers FC

Attack 1.22 +22%
Defence 1.13 +13%

Atlético Ottawa

Attack 0.93 -7%
Defence 1.08 +8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

HFX Wanderers FC vs Atlético Ottawa: result vs prediction

HFX Wanderers FC 0 – 1 Atlético Ottawa

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Before and after this match

HFX Wanderers FC vs Atlético Ottawa markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 HFX Wanderers FC 47.9% 2.09 +11.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 69.9% 1.43 — —
Both teams to score Yes 67.5% 1.48 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.0% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 43.7% 2.29 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2HFX Wanderers FC47.9%
Draw24.0%
Atlético Ottawa28.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569.9%
Under 2.530.1%
Both teams to scoreYes67.5%
No32.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.9%
12 (either side)76.0%
X2 (draw or away)52.1%
Handicap -1HFX Wanderers FC win35.6%
Push (exactly one goal)20.7%
Loss43.7%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.3%
1-19.1%
3-16.9%

HFX Wanderers FC vs Atlético Ottawa stats

HFX Wanderers FC and Atlético Ottawa recent form

newest first
HFX Wanderers FC WWLLWL
Atlético Ottawa LLDWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

HFX Wanderers FC and Atlético Ottawa going into this match

league record before kick-off

HFX Wanderers FC record

  • They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 23 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atlético Ottawa record

  • They have won 10 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
  • 52% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

HFX Wanderers FC vs Atlético Ottawa head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1HFX Wanderers FC wins 4Draws 5Atlético Ottawa wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-08Atlético OttawaHFX Wanderers FCCanadian Premier League2-1
2026-07-01HFX Wanderers FCAtlético OttawaCanadian Premier League1-3
2026-05-17Atlético OttawaHFX Wanderers FCCanadian Premier League1-0
2025-10-18HFX Wanderers FCAtlético OttawaCanadian Premier League0-1
2025-07-18Atlético OttawaHFX Wanderers FCCanadian Premier League2-0
2025-05-24HFX Wanderers FCAtlético OttawaCanadian Premier League2-0
2025-04-05Atlético OttawaHFX Wanderers FCCanadian Premier League2-2
2024-09-29Atlético OttawaHFX Wanderers FCCanadian Premier League1-1
2024-08-24HFX Wanderers FCAtlético OttawaCanadian Premier League1-1
2024-06-02Atlético OttawaHFX Wanderers FCCanadian Premier League2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

HFX Wanderers FC vs Atlético Ottawa odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 45.2%, draw 24.7%, away 30.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.99 3.65 3.00
Bet365 2.00 3.50 3.00
BetVictor 2.05 3.70 3.00
Betano 2.10 3.70 3.10
Betfair 1.95 3.80 3.00
Marathonbet 1.97 3.65 2.93
Pinnacle 2.04 3.66 3.05
SBO 1.92 3.30 2.78
William Hill 2.00 3.30 3.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.00 ▲ +0.08
X 3.65 ▼ -0.09
2 3.00 ▼ -0.13

4 snapshots recorded, from .