Canadian Premier League
·
Full time
·Group Stage
Forge
vs
HFX Wanderers FC
3 – 3 Full time
| 4′ | Lucas Cavallini | ||
| 56′ | A. ReidLiam MacKenzie | ||
| 60′ | D. Nimick | ||
| 69′ | Tristan BorgesNoah Jensen | ||
| 69′ | Jason BahamboulaNelson Pierre | ||
| 78′ | Lucas CavalliniIsmael Oketokoun Hassane | ||
| 78′ | aghilas sadekLevonte Johnson | ||
| 78′ | D. Nimick | ||
| 81′ | Nelson Pierre | ||
| 85′ | Finn LinderYohan Bai | ||
| 85′ | S. ZitmanTavio Ciccarelli | ||
| 85′ | Miguel Arilla GuinotFrancesco Troisi | ||
| 90′ | Ismael Oketokoun Hassane | ||
| 90′ | M. BourgeoisDaniel Krutzen | ||
| 90′ | Liam MacKenzie | ||
| 90′ | Tavio Ciccarelli | ||
| 90′ | Manjrekar James |
Forge
61%
Draw
23%
HFX Wanderers FC
17%
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 52 | Possession % | 48 |
| 8 | Corners | 0 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 1 | Saves | 1 |
| 362 | Accurate passes | 340 |
Forge vs HFX Wanderers FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Forge vs HFX Wanderers FC
| Probability | Forge | Draw | HFX Wanderers FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.9% | 25.0% | 20.1% |
| Market | 62.5% | 21.7% | 15.8% |
| Final | 60.6% | 22.5% | 16.9% |
| Edge | -7.6% | +3.3% | +4.3% |
Why Forge
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.03.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
79%
3+ goals
54%
No goals
7%
Forge and HFX Wanderers FC expected goals
Forge
1.83
HFX Wanderers FC
1.03
Total expected goals: 2.86
Forge and HFX Wanderers FC attack and defence ratings
Forge
Attack
1.00 +0%
Defence
0.70 -30%
HFX Wanderers FC
Attack
1.11 +11%
Defence
1.07 +7%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Forge vs HFX Wanderers FC: result vs prediction
Forge 3 – 3 HFX Wanderers FC
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Before and after this match
Forge vs HFX Wanderers FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Forge | 60.6% | 1.65 | -7.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.1% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.1% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.0% | 2.22 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Forge | 60.6% |
| Draw | 22.5% | |
| HFX Wanderers FC | 16.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.1% |
| No | 44.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Forge win | 32.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 45.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.6% |
Forge vs HFX Wanderers FC stats
Forge and HFX Wanderers FC recent form
| Forge |
DDWDLW |
| HFX Wanderers FC |
LWWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Forge and HFX Wanderers FC going into this match
Forge record
- They have won 14 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
HFX Wanderers FC record
- They have won 7 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Forge vs HFX Wanderers FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
7Forge wins
2Draws
1HFX Wanderers FC wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | HFX Wanderers FC | Forge | Canadian Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Forge | HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Forge | HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Championship | 4-0 |
| 2026-05-02 | HFX Wanderers FC | Forge | Canadian Premier League | 1-3 |
| 2025-09-06 | Forge | HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-07-25 | HFX Wanderers FC | Forge | Canadian Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2025-06-08 | Forge | HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-07 | Forge | HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Championship | 3-1 |
| 2025-05-03 | HFX Wanderers FC | Forge | Canadian Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2024-09-14 | HFX Wanderers FC | Forge | Canadian Premier League | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Forge vs HFX Wanderers FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 62.5%, draw 21.7%, away 15.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.47 | 4.78 | 6.20 |
| Bet365 | 1.48 | 4.20 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.45 | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.52 | 4.25 | 5.80 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.43 | 4.05 | 5.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.49 | 4.18 | 5.49 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.20 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.46 —
X
4.20 ▼ -0.05
2
5.78 ▼ -0.10
4 snapshots recorded, from .