HFX Wanderers FC
vs
Cavalry FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cavalry FC
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC
| Probability | HFX Wanderers FC | Draw | Cavalry FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.3% | 22.9% | 44.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 32.3% | 22.9% | 44.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Cavalry FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.71.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC match preview
HFX Wanderers FC face Cavalry FC in a Canadian Premier League matchup with kickoff scheduled for October 12, 2026. The model indicates a 32% probability of a win for HFX, a 23% chance of a draw, and a 45% likelihood of a Cavalry victory. The expected goals suggest HFX will score 1.71 while Cavalry is projected to net 2.03. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring with an 8% probability.
Recent form shows HFX Wanderers FC with two losses in their last three matches, while Cavalry FC has recorded two wins in their last three outings. In their last ten head-to-head encounters, HFX has secured 1 win, Cavalry has 6 wins, and there have been 3 draws. With a confidence grade of C, the probabilities reflect model-only predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.73
HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC attack and defence ratings
HFX Wanderers FC
Cavalry FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage fixtures
Before and after this match
HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cavalry FC | 44.8% | 2.23 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HFX Wanderers FC | 32.3% |
| Draw | 22.9% | |
| Cavalry FC | 44.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.9% |
| No | 28.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cavalry FC win | 25.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.9% | |
| Loss | 55.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.1% |
| 1-2 | 8.4% | |
| 2-2 | 7.2% |
HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC stats
HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC recent form
| HFX Wanderers FC |
DLWWLL |
| Cavalry FC |
LLWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC season so far
HFX Wanderers FC record
- They have won 7 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cavalry FC record
- They have won 16 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | HFX Wanderers FC | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League | 1-3 |
| 2026-07-18 | Cavalry FC | HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Cavalry FC | HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Cavalry FC | HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2025-08-09 | Cavalry FC | HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-06-14 | HFX Wanderers FC | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-10 | HFX Wanderers FC | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League | 0-3 |
| 2024-10-12 | Cavalry FC | HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2024-08-10 | Cavalry FC | HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Premier League | 3-2 |
| 2024-07-01 | HFX Wanderers FC | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.