Canadian Premier League · 2026-09-20T16:10:00Z UTC Full time ·Group Stage

Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec

0 – 2 Full time

11′			Ballou Tabla
48′			Alessandro Simone Biello
56′			Sean Rea
66′			Tim ArnaudRalph Khoury
66′			Emiliano·GarcíaKamron Habibullah
70′			Noah Lauren Trudel dos SantosDavid Choiniere
75′			Loic Adrien Kwemi
76′			G. AntinoroAmaury Escoto
76′			Diego GutiérrezJuan Castro
76′			Enmanuel Mbomio AngueJean-Aniel Assi
80′			Loic Adrien KwemiS. Mlah
90′			Sean Rea
90′			Abzi DiyaeddineZ. Fernandez
90′			Sean ReaOmar El Kalkouli
90′			Ibrahim CondeJ. Mcinerney

TD Place Stadium, Ottawa

Atlético Ottawa

41%

Draw

24%

Supra du Quebec

34%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

7	Shots	19
3	Shots on target	9
37	Possession %	63
7	Corners	4
6	Fouls	13
0	Offsides	1
7	Saves	3
410	Accurate passes	406

Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Atlético Ottawa	Draw	Supra du Quebec
Model	55.5%	22.4%	22.1%
Market	36.8%	25.0%	38.2%
Final	41.5%	24.4%	34.2%
Edge	+18.7%	-2.6%	-16.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Atlético Ottawa

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.31.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices Atlético Ottawa below the model: +18.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

96%

2+ goals

87%

3+ goals

67%

No goals

Atlético Ottawa and Supra du Quebec expected goals

Atlético Ottawa

2.14

Supra du Quebec

1.31

Total expected goals: 3.45

Atlético Ottawa and Supra du Quebec attack and defence ratings

Atlético Ottawa

Attack

1.04 +4%

Defence

1.07 +7%

Supra du Quebec

Attack

0.93 -7%

Defence

1.23 +23%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec: result vs prediction

Atlético Ottawa 0 – 2 Supra du Quebec

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Before and after this match

Atlético Ottawa, previous: Forge vs Atlético Ottawa prediction
Atlético Ottawa, next: HFX Wanderers FC – Atlético Ottawa, 2026-09-26
Supra du Quebec, previous: Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC: odds and pick
Supra du Quebec, next: Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec prediction

Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Atlético Ottawa	41.5%	2.41	+18.7%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	66.9%	1.49	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	65.3%	1.53	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	75.6%	1.32	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	44.5%	2.25	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Atlético Ottawa	41.5%
	Draw	24.4%
	Supra du Quebec	34.2%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	66.9%
	Under 2.5	33.1%
Both teams to score	Yes	65.3%
	No	34.7%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	65.8%
	12 (either side)	75.6%
	X2 (draw or away)	58.5%
Handicap -1	Atlético Ottawa win	34.4%
	Push (exactly one goal)	21.1%
	Loss	44.5%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	9.8%
	2-1	9.5%
	2-0	7.3%

Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec stats

Atlético Ottawa and Supra du Quebec recent form

newest first

Atlético Ottawa	LDWLWW
Supra du Quebec	LLWDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Atlético Ottawa and Supra du Quebec going into this match

league record before kick-off

Atlético Ottawa record

They have won 10 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 22 matches.
They have failed to score in 4 of 22 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Supra du Quebec record

They have won 6 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
They have failed to score in 4 of 21 matches.
They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

3Atlético Ottawa wins 1Draws 1Supra du Quebec wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-08-16	Supra du Quebec	Atlético Ottawa	Canadian Premier League	1-2
2026-08-11	Atlético Ottawa	Supra du Quebec	Canadian Championship	3-3
2026-07-08	Supra du Quebec	Atlético Ottawa	Canadian Championship	3-1
2026-06-09	Atlético Ottawa	Supra du Quebec	Canadian Premier League	5-3
2026-04-19	Supra du Quebec	Atlético Ottawa	Canadian Premier League	0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 36.8%, draw 25.0%, away 38.2%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.44	3.65	2.28
Bet365	2.45	3.50	2.38
BetVictor	2.50	3.60	2.40
Betano	2.62	3.60	2.45
Betfair	2.45	3.60	2.38
Marathonbet	2.44	3.65	2.28
Pinnacle	2.45	3.91	2.34
William Hill	2.45	3.50	2.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.45 ▲ +0.02

X 3.60 ▼ -0.02

2 2.36 —

3 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-19T08:10:02Z.