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Canadian Premier League · Full time ·Group Stage

Forge vs Atlético Ottawa

3 – 0 Full time

15′Manny Aparicio
39′Kyle Bekker
60′Kyle Bekker
65′Sergei Kozlovskiy
66′Enmanuel Mbomio Angue
71′Brian Wright
71′Enmanuel Mbomio AngueTim Arnaud
71′Juan CastroKamron Habibullah
72′Hoce MassundaNana Ampomah
72′Brian WrightIsmael Oketokoun Hassane
79′Aghilas Abdelmalek Sadek SadekTristan Borges
79′Kyle BekkerBen Paton
79′M. Bourgeois
81′G. AntinoroEmiliano·García
81′Diego GutiérrezRalph Khoury
81′Antoine BatisseManjrekar James
82′Ismael Oketokoun Hassane
90′M. Bourgeois

Tim Hortons Field

Forge 56%
Draw 24%
Atlético Ottawa 20%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

22 Shots 8
7 Shots on target 1
46 Possession % 54
3 Corners 4
11 Fouls 15
1 Offsides 0
1 Saves 3
368 Accurate passes 430

Forge vs Atlético Ottawa overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Forge vs Atlético Ottawa

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityForgeDrawAtlético Ottawa
Model46.2%27.6%26.2%
Market58.7%23.3%18.1%
Final55.5%24.4%20.1%
Edge-12.5%+4.4%+8.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Forge

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 1.13.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Forge ↓ / Atlético Ottaw → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 9% 13% 7% 2 8% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 50%
No goals 8%

Forge and Atlético Ottawa expected goals

Forge 1.55
Atlético Ottawa 1.13

Total expected goals: 2.68

Forge and Atlético Ottawa attack and defence ratings

Forge

Attack 0.96 -4%
Defence 0.74 -26%

Atlético Ottawa

Attack 1.15 +15%
Defence 0.96 -4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Forge vs Atlético Ottawa: result vs prediction

Forge 3 – 0 Atlético Ottawa

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Before and after this match

Forge vs Atlético Ottawa markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Forge 55.5% 1.80 -12.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 50.0% 2.00 — —
Both teams to score Yes 54.3% 1.84 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 79.9% 1.25 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.1% 1.85 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Forge55.5%
Draw24.4%
Atlético Ottawa20.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550.0%
Under 2.550.0%
Both teams to scoreYes54.3%
No45.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)79.9%
12 (either side)75.6%
X2 (draw or away)44.5%
Handicap -1Forge win24.0%
Push (exactly one goal)21.9%
Loss54.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.2%
1-09.5%
2-19.3%

Forge vs Atlético Ottawa stats

Forge and Atlético Ottawa recent form

newest first
Forge DLWWLL
Atlético Ottawa DWLWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Forge and Atlético Ottawa going into this match

league record before kick-off

Forge record

  • They have won 13 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 20 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 20 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atlético Ottawa record

  • They have won 10 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 21 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 21 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
  • 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Forge vs Atlético Ottawa head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Forge wins 3Draws 3Atlético Ottawa wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-24Atlético OttawaForgeCanadian Premier League2-1
2026-04-04ForgeAtlético OttawaCanadian Premier League2-0
2025-10-26ForgeAtlético OttawaCanadian Premier League1-2
2025-09-21Atlético OttawaForgeCanadian Premier League1-1
2025-08-17ForgeAtlético OttawaCanadian Premier League2-0
2025-07-12Atlético OttawaForgeCanadian Premier League1-1
2025-05-13ForgeAtlético OttawaCanadian Premier League2-2
2024-11-02ForgeAtlético OttawaCanadian Premier League1-0
2024-10-12ForgeAtlético OttawaCanadian Premier League0-2
2024-08-10ForgeAtlético OttawaCanadian Premier League3-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Forge vs Atlético Ottawa odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 58.7%, draw 23.3%, away 18.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.54 3.88 5.17
Bet365 1.50 3.90 5.25
BetVictor 1.55 4.00 5.00
Betano 1.55 4.25 5.20
Betfair 1.53 4.00 5.00
Marathonbet 1.52 3.88 5.10
Pinnacle 1.60 3.88 4.58
SBO 1.54 3.46 4.20
William Hill 1.55 3.75 4.75

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.54 ▼ -0.02
X 3.88 ▼ -0.01
2 5.00 ▲ +0.15

4 snapshots recorded, from .