Canadian Premier League
·
Full time
·Group Stage
Cavalry FC
vs
Forge
1 – 1 Full time
| 30′ | Harrison Paton | ||
| 36′ | Hoce Massunda | ||
| 57′ | Sergio Camargo | ||
| 57′ | Nathaniel EdwardsGoteh Ntignee | ||
| 57′ | Sergio CamargoAli Musse | ||
| 62′ | Manjrekar James | ||
| 68′ | Tobias Warschewski | ||
| 73′ | Hoce MassundaNoah Jensen | ||
| 73′ | Manjrekar JamesTristan Borges | ||
| 73′ | Ismael Oketokoun HassaneLucas Cavallini | ||
| 74′ | Caniggia ElvaRobert Owen Antoniuk | ||
| 79′ | Aghilas Abdelmalek Sadek SadekBrian Wright | ||
| 79′ | M. BourgeoisLevonte Johnson | ||
| 80′ | Noah Jensen | ||
| 83′ | B. KamdemCurtis Ofori | ||
| 90′ | Robert Owen Antoniuk | ||
| 90′ | Tobias Warschewski | ||
| 90′ | Lucas Cavallini |
Cavalry FC
49%
Draw
28%
Forge
23%
Match stats
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 55 | Possession % | 45 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 19 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 3 | Saves | 2 |
| 303 | Accurate passes | 221 |
Cavalry FC vs Forge overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cavalry FC vs Forge
| Probability | Cavalry FC | Draw | Forge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.3% | 28.6% | 18.1% |
| Market | 47.3% | 28.3% | 24.5% |
| Final | 48.8% | 28.4% | 22.9% |
| Edge | +6.1% | +0.3% | -6.4% |
Why Cavalry FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Cavalry FC below the model: +6.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
88%
2+ goals
67%
3+ goals
40%
No goals
12%
Cavalry FC and Forge expected goals
Cavalry FC
1.50
Forge
0.77
Total expected goals: 2.27
Cavalry FC and Forge attack and defence ratings
Cavalry FC
Attack
1.29 +29%
Defence
0.55 -45%
Forge
Attack
1.07 +7%
Defence
0.69 -31%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Cavalry FC vs Forge: result vs prediction
Cavalry FC 1 – 1 Forge
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Before and after this match
Cavalry FC vs Forge markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cavalry FC | 48.8% | 2.05 | +6.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.7% | 2.14 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cavalry FC | 48.8% |
| Draw | 28.4% | |
| Forge | 22.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.9% |
| No | 57.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cavalry FC win | 28.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.1% | |
| Loss | 46.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.3% |
| 1-1 | 13.1% | |
| 2-0 | 11.6% |
Cavalry FC vs Forge stats
Cavalry FC and Forge recent form
| Cavalry FC |
WWWWWD |
| Forge |
WDLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cavalry FC and Forge going into this match
Cavalry FC record
- They have won 15 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 21 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Forge record
- They have won 14 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 21 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cavalry FC vs Forge head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
5Cavalry FC wins
3Draws
2Forge wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Cavalry FC | Forge | Canadian Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Forge | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Forge | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Forge | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2025-10-11 | Cavalry FC | Forge | Canadian Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-30 | Cavalry FC | Forge | Canadian Premier League | 4-1 |
| 2025-05-31 | Forge | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-05 | Forge | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2024-11-09 | Cavalry FC | Forge | Canadian Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2024-10-27 | Forge | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cavalry FC vs Forge odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.3%, draw 27.8%, away 24.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.92 | 3.15 | 3.70 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.25 | 3.70 |
| BetVictor | 1.91 | 3.30 | 3.75 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.60 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.30 | 3.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.90 | 3.15 | 3.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.93 | 3.26 | 3.73 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.00 | 3.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.92 ▼ -0.16
X
3.20 ▲ +0.05
2
3.70 ▲ +0.40
4 snapshots recorded, from .