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Canadian Premier League · Full time ·Group Stage

Forge vs York United

1 – 1 Full time

12′K. Clarke
25′Ariel Almagro
38′Rezart Rama
46′N. JensenB. Paton
59′A. AlmagroK. Kibato
64′Nana Ampomah
65′T. SkublakL. Accettola
70′H. Massunda
72′K. BekkerM. Bourgeois
72′H. MassundaB. Wright
74′K. ClarkeC. Onyeocha
75′Chimaobim Onyeocha
84′A. SadekT. Borges
88′N. AmpomahM. Filion
90′Tristan Borges

Tim Hortons Field

Forge 74%
Draw 17%
York United 9%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 6
5 Shots on target 5
57 Possession % 43
7 Corners 1
15 Fouls 17
3 Offsides 1
4 Saves 4
431 Accurate passes 299

Forge vs York United overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Forge vs York United

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityForgeDrawYork United
Model72.4%17.6%10.0%
Market74.3%16.6%9.1%
Final73.8%16.9%9.3%
Edge-1.9%+0.9%+0.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Forge

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.50 vs 0.85.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Forge ↓ / York United → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 8% 2 11% 9% 3 9% 8% 4+ 10% 9%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 86%
3+ goals 65%
No goals 4%

Forge and York United expected goals

Forge 2.50
York United 0.85

Total expected goals: 3.35

Forge and York United attack and defence ratings

Forge

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 0.74 -26%

York United

Attack 0.89 -11%
Defence 1.46 +46%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Forge vs York United: result vs prediction

Forge 1 – 1 York United

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Before and after this match

Forge vs York United markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Forge 73.8% 1.35 -1.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 64.9% 1.54 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.3% 1.88 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 90.7% 1.10 — —
Handicap -1 Forge win 51.2% 1.95 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Forge73.8%
Draw16.9%
York United9.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564.9%
Under 2.535.1%
Both teams to scoreYes53.3%
No46.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)90.7%
12 (either side)83.1%
X2 (draw or away)26.2%
Handicap -1Forge win51.2%
Push (exactly one goal)21.3%
Loss27.5%
Correct score (top 3)2-011.0%
2-19.3%
3-09.1%

Forge vs York United stats

Forge and York United recent form

newest first
Forge LWWLLD
York United LDWDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Forge and York United going into this match

league record before kick-off

Forge record

  • They have won 13 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 19 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 19 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

York United record

  • They have won 4 of their 18 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.

Forge vs York United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

7Forge wins 3Draws 0York United wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-26York UnitedForgeCanadian Premier League1-3
2026-06-07York UnitedForgeCanadian Premier League1-4
2025-10-18ForgeYork UnitedCanadian Premier League3-0
2025-08-09York UnitedForgeCanadian Premier League1-2
2025-06-29ForgeYork UnitedCanadian Premier League2-2
2025-04-27York UnitedForgeCanadian Premier League2-2
2024-09-28ForgeYork UnitedCanadian Premier League2-0
2024-08-24York UnitedForgeCanadian Premier League0-0
2024-06-01ForgeYork UnitedCanadian Premier League3-0
2024-05-01ForgeYork UnitedCanadian Championship3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Forge vs York United odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 74.0%, draw 16.6%, away 9.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.24 5.10 11.00
1xBet 1.21 5.45 11.00
Bet365 1.25 5.00 9.00
BetVictor 1.22 5.75 10.00
Betano 1.28 5.50 9.25
Betfair 1.22 5.00 9.00
Dafabet 1.26 5.80 9.40
Marathonbet 1.20 5.45 10.50
Pinnacle 1.23 5.74 9.03
William Hill 1.22 5.00 10.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.22 ▼ -0.01
X 5.45 —
2 10.00 ▲ +0.55

4 snapshots recorded, from .