Supra du Quebec
vs
Forge
1 – 0 Full time
Supra du Quebec vs Forge overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Supra du Quebec vs Forge
| Probability | Supra du Quebec | Draw | Forge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.9% | 25.3% | 50.9% |
| Market | 27.8% | 26.0% | 46.3% |
| Final | 26.8% | 25.8% | 47.4% |
| Edge | -3.9% | -0.7% | +4.6% |
Why Forge
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.18.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Forge below the model: +4.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Supra du Quebec and Forge expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.99
Supra du Quebec and Forge attack and defence ratings
Supra du Quebec
Forge
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Supra du Quebec vs Forge: result vs prediction
Supra du Quebec 1 – 0 Forge
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Before and after this match
Supra du Quebec vs Forge markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Forge | 47.4% | 2.11 | +4.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.1% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Supra du Quebec | 26.8% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| Forge | 47.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.1% |
| No | 40.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Forge win | 29.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 49.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-2 | 8.2% |
Supra du Quebec vs Forge stats
Supra du Quebec and Forge recent form
| Supra du Quebec |
DLLDWL |
| Forge |
WWLLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Supra du Quebec and Forge going into this match
Supra du Quebec record
- They have won 6 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 19 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Forge record
- They have won 13 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 19 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 19 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Supra du Quebec vs Forge head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Forge | Supra du Quebec | Canadian Premier League | 3-2 |
| 2026-07-05 | Supra du Quebec | Forge | Canadian Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2026-05-13 | Forge | Supra du Quebec | Canadian Premier League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Supra du Quebec vs Forge odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.8%, draw 26.0%, away 46.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.40 | 3.55 | 1.95 |
| 1xBet | 3.16 | 3.38 | 2.04 |
| Bet365 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 1.91 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.50 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 3.35 | 3.70 | 1.98 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 3.50 | 1.91 |
| Dafabet | 3.25 | 3.80 | 2.02 |
| Marathonbet | 3.10 | 3.38 | 2.02 |
| Pinnacle | 3.01 | 3.77 | 2.02 |
| Superbet | 3.20 | 3.75 | 2.02 |
| Unibet | 3.75 | 3.45 | 1.87 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.40 | 1.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .